In its monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered the Q2-Q4 2022 forecast for world oil demand by 1.3 mln bpd amidst the Ukraine crisis.
Additional takeaways
Emergency stocks released by IEA member countries will provide a welcome buffer.
Alignment of energy security and economic factors could accelerate transition away from oil.
If Iran deal reached, exports could ramp up by around 1 mln bpd over a six-month period.
Prospects of any additional supplies from Iran could be months off.
Output growth will come from the US, Canada, Brazil and Guyana but near-term upside potential limited.
January OECD industry stocks lowest since April 2014, covering 57.2 days of forward demand.
January inventories stood at 2.621 bln barrels, 335.6 mln barrels below the 2017-2021 average.
Saudi Arabia and UAE are so far showing no willingness to tap into their reserves.
Estimates that 3 mln bpd of Russian oil output could be shut in from April as sanctions bite, buyers flee.
OECD total industry stocks fell by 22.1 mln barrels in January.
Cuts 2022 growth forecast by 950,000 bpd to 2.1 mln bpd for average of 99.7 mln bpd.
Market reaction
WTI is looking to extend the rebound above the $97 mark on these headlines, gaining 3.50% on the day.
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