Francesco Garzarelli, Goldman Sachs' co-Head of Global Macro & Markets Research, expresses his take on the French presidential elections.
On a Le Pen win:
Expectations of reintroduction of national currencies would rise
Market dislocations could potentially emerge (primarily in EMU sovereign bonds)
Bank and international spillovers would likely follow
But, so far the overall market response so far has "been remarkably orderly and, overall, quite muted"
So far there is also little evidence of systemic risk
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