Gold consolidates below record highs as traders await Powell’s remarks

Gold (XAU/USD) is taking a breather on Tuesday after surging to a fresh all-time high near $4,179 earlier in the day as safe haven demand remains supported amid intensifying US-China trade tensions, dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, and growing uncertainties across major economies.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is holding firm near $4,125 after a sharp intraday drop from record highs to $4,090. The move reflects mild profit-taking after an overextended rally, as traders trim positions to secure recent gains. However, the downside remains cushioned as fears of a prolonged trade standoff between the world’s two largest economies continue to dominate market sentiment.

Gold’s rally is showing no signs of slowing with the metal up more than 50% year to date and on track for its best year since 1979. The historic run is driven by expectations of two more interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, persistent geopolitical tensions, and steady central bank buying. Strong inflows into Gold-backed ETFs and recent political uncertainty in France and Japan have further boosted demand, keeping the metal’s record-breaking rally well supported.

Market movers: Trade spat intensifies, global politics stir, Powell in focus

• Fresh trade headlines added to the cautious tone after reports that China began imposing new port fees on US-linked ships, mirroring Washington’s earlier move to levy similar charges on Chinese vessels. The tit-for-tat escalation highlights how trade tensions are spreading beyond tariffs into the maritime and logistics sectors, raising fears of broader disruptions to global trade flows.
• On Tuesday, China sanctioned five United States (US) subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of aiding American investigations that undermine Beijing’s interests. China’s Commerce Ministry said, “Hanwha Ocean's US-related subsidiaries have assisted and supported the US government’s relevant investigative activities, thereby jeopardising China’s sovereignty, security, and developmental interests.”
• Investors are closely watching political developments in France following the abrupt resignation and swift reappointment of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, who is rushing to present the 2026 budget bill to parliament in a bid to secure support from opposition lawmakers. Lecornu’s new Cabinet faces an early test of confidence with the Socialist Party threatening to table its own no-confidence motion if fiscal targets are not met.
• Japan’s political landscape remains in flux after the collapse of the long-standing coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, ending a 26-year partnership. The breakup has injected fresh uncertainty into the formation of Japan’s next government, with opposition parties exploring alliances to challenge Sanae Takaichi’s bid for the premiership.
• In the US, focus remains on the prolonged government shutdown, now stretching into its third week, as lawmakers prepare for another vote on a short-term funding measure later on Tuesday.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting in Philadelphia at 16:20 GMT. His remarks on the economic outlook and monetary policy will be closely watched for clues on the Fed’s rate-cut path ahead of the upcoming October FOMC meeting. The event marks Powell’s final appearance before the pre-meeting blackout period begins on October 18.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD pulls back from record highs but bulls remain in control

XAU/USD remains firmly in an uptrend, carving a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows as buyers consistently step in during each pullback. The same dynamic is playing out again after the metal retreated from its all-time high earlier on Tuesday with bulls re-entering near the $4,100–$4,090 area in what looks like preparation for another leg higher.

Immediate support sits at the intraday low of $4,090, followed by the $4,060-$4,050 zone, which is reinforced by the 21-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart around $4,047. As long as prices hold above this region, the broader bullish structure stays intact. On the upside, a break above the recent peak would expose the $4,200 psychological level as the next target for bulls.