Gold remains confined in a narrow trading range, near YTD lows

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

• Fed rate hike expectations keep a lid on any attempted recovery.
• A modest USD rebound exerts some fresh downward pressure.
• Broader trading range holds ahead of Friday’s US inflation figures.

Gold continued with its struggle to register any meaningful recovery and remains within striking distance of over 17-month lows, set last Friday.

The precious metal continued with its range-bound price action within a broader trading range, held over the past one-week or so. Expectations about gradual Fed rate hike path had been one of the key factors keeping a lid on any attempted recovery move for the non-yielding yellow.

Meanwhile, an early uptick to the $1216 area was quickly sold into and was being weighed down by a goodish US Dollar rebound, which tends to undermine demand for dollar-denominated commodities - like gold. The recent USD profit-taking slide stalled on Wednesday and found some support following China's Foreign Ministry about the US sanctions on Iran.

China's Foreign Ministry said that it opposes unilateral US sanctions on Iran and prompted some safe-haven flows, which coupled with a negative trading sentiment around European equity markets seemed to be the only factor extending some support and helping limit deeper losses, at least of the time being.

In absence of any major market moving US economic releases, the commodity seems more likely to continue with its subdued price action. Investors now look forward to this week's important US macro data - July consumer inflation figures, which might influence Fed rate hike expectations and eventually provide some fresh directional impetus.

Technical levels to watch

Any meaningful up-move is likely to confront resistance near $1220-22 zone, above which the commodity is likely to aim towards challenging its next major hurdle near the $1331 region. On the flip side, $1207-06 area might continue to protect the immediate downside, which if broken should open the room for an extension of the metal's well-established bearish trend.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

AUD/USD remains depressed near 0.6950 after RBA minutes

AUD/USD attracts follow-through selling during Tuesday’s Asian session, looking to extend the overnight rejection slide from 0.7000, or a two-week top, following the release of RBA meeting Minutes. The US Dollar retains a bullish undertone near its highest level since April 2025 as energy-driven inflation risks keep December Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table. Adding to this, geopolitical risks further underpin the safe-haven USD.

USD/JPY extends retreat below 158.50 as intervention risks loom

USD/JPY is dropping below 158.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day winning streak and pulling back from an over two-week top touched the previous day, despite Japan's soft PPI inflation print. Bulls turn cautious amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen, which, in turn, weighs on the pair.

Gold clings to gains just below $4,200

Gold fades Monday’s small pullback and picks up renewed pace, briefly flirting with the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce. The precious metal’s recovery comes in line with the fresh downward trend in the Greenback in combination with shrinking US Treasury yields across the board and easing tensions on the geopolitical front.

Bitcoin rebounds despite cautious sentiment

Bitcoin rebounds over 2%, trading above $83,500 on Tuesday, recovering the previous day’s losses. Persistent geopolitical tensions and mixed signals continue to weigh on risk appetite, keeping investors cautious despite BTC’s recovery.

US – Midterm update: Democratic lead holds three weeks before election

With three weeks until the US midterm election on 3 November, prediction markets are more or less unchanged. Polymarket continues to put the probability of a Democratic sweep at 60-65%. The House is seen as a fairly safe Democratic win, with a probability of around 90%.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?