Gold Price News and Forecast: XAU/USD retreats from session highs, eyes 5-day SMA support

FXStreet Team FXStreet

Gold: Uptrend expected to continue while it trades above 1929

Uptrend scenario

The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1929, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1950 – 1965.

Downtrend scenario

An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1929, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1906.

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD retreats from session highs, eyes 5-day SMA support

Gold is trading near $1,952 per ounce, having put in a near two-month high of $1,955 early Wednesday.

The 4-hour chart shows a bearish divergence of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The hourly chart RSI is also painting a similar picture. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI is now reporting overbought conditions with an above-70 print for the first time since August.

AUD/USD remains depressed near 0.6950 after RBA minutes

AUD/USD attracts follow-through selling during Tuesday’s Asian session, looking to extend the overnight rejection slide from 0.7000, or a two-week top, following the release of RBA meeting Minutes. The US Dollar retains a bullish undertone near its highest level since April 2025 as energy-driven inflation risks keep December Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table. Adding to this, geopolitical risks further underpin the safe-haven USD.

USD/JPY extends retreat below 158.50 as intervention risks loom

USD/JPY is dropping below 158.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day winning streak and pulling back from an over two-week top touched the previous day, despite Japan's soft PPI inflation print. Bulls turn cautious amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen, which, in turn, weighs on the pair.

Gold: Bears struggle to breach below $4,150

Gold now gives away its initial gains and resumes its decline, revisiting the $4,160 region per troy ounce on Tuesday. The precious metal’s pullback comes despite the fresh downward trend in the Greenback in combination with a mixed performance of US Treasury yields across the board and easing tensions on the geopolitical front.

Bitcoin rebounds despite cautious sentiment

Bitcoin rebounds over 2%, trading above $83,500 on Tuesday, recovering the previous day’s losses. Persistent geopolitical tensions and mixed signals continue to weigh on risk appetite, keeping investors cautious despite BTC’s recovery.

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With three weeks until the US midterm election on 3 November, prediction markets are more or less unchanged. Polymarket continues to put the probability of a Democratic sweep at 60-65%. The House is seen as a fairly safe Democratic win, with a probability of around 90%.

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