|

Gold price keeps the red below $3,100; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus

  • Gold price meets with a fresh supply on Friday, though the downside potential seems limited.
  • Trump’s tariffs-inspired risk-off mood might continue to act as a tailwind for the precious metal.
  • Fed rate cut bets weigh on the USD and also contribute to limiting losses for the XAU/USD pair.

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone through the first half of the European session on Friday and currently trades below the $3,100 mark, down for the second successive day. The downtick lacks any obvious fundamental catalyst and could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial US monthly employment details, or the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

In the meantime, worries about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs might act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Moreover, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon amid a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown and a bearish US Dollar (USD) should limit losses for the non-yielding bullion.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price drifts lower amid some repositioning ahead of the US jobs data

  • Gold price attracts some sellers for the second successive day on Friday, though a combination of factors should continue to act as a tailwind and limit any meaningful corrective slide from the record high.
  • US President Donald Trump rattled global financial markets late Wednesday and unveiled reciprocal tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, which could negatively impact the world economy.
  • Traders ramped up expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs four times by the year-end as Trump's trade policies reignite US recession fears.
  • The yield in the benchmark 10-year US government bond slides below 4.0% for the first time in six months and fails to assist the US Dollar to build on the overnight bounce from a multi-month trough.
  • Meanwhile, data released on Thursday showed that economic activity in the US services sector eased momentum in March, with the ISM Services PMI falling to 50.8 from 53.5 in February and missing estimates.
  • Separately, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance ticked lower to 219K for the week ending March 29 from the 225K previous.
  • The aforementioned fundamental backdrop favors the XAU/USD bulls. Hence, the modest downtick could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the release of the monthly US employment details.
  • The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show that the US economy added 135K new jobs in March, though the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.1%.

Gold price bears retain intraday control below $3,100 mark; $3,056-3,054 support holds the key

From a technical perspective, any subsequent fall might continue to find decent support near the $2,056-2,054 horizontal zone. The said area nears the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the corrective slide further towards the $3,036-3,035 intermediate support en route to the $3,000 psychological mark,

On the flip side, the $3,115-3,125 congestion zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. This is followed by resistance near the $3,143 area and the all-time peak, around the $3,157-3,158 region touched on Thursday, which if cleared could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, in turn, will set the stage for an extension of the Gold price's recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past four months or so.

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Read more.

Next release: Fri Apr 04, 2025 12:30

Frequency: Monthly

Consensus: 135K

Previous: 151K

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.


BRANDED CONTENT

Finding the right broker for trading Gold is crucial, as not all brokers offer the same advantages. Explore our list of top-performing brokers to discover the best options for seamless and cost-effective Gold trading.

Author

Haresh Menghani

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

More from Haresh Menghani
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD extends the range play above 0.7200 as traders await US inflation data

AUD/USD is seen extending its consolidative price move above 0.7200 during the Asian session on Thursday amid mixed cues. Rising RBA rate-hike bets keep the Aussie close to its highest level since May 14. However, hawkish Fed expectations and escalating US-Iran tensions offer some support to the US Dollar, capping the currency pair as traders await US inflation figures.


USD/JPY consolidates around 153.50 as bears turn cautious ahead of US inflation

USD/JPY stabilizes above 153.50 during the Asian session on Thursday, but remains near a seven-month low set earlier this week as hawkish BoJ repricing continues to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, rising September Fed rate-hike bets and escalating US-Iran tensions help ease US Dollar selling pressure, offering some support to the currency pair ahead of US inflation figures.

Gold eases within range, hovers around $4,360

Gold turned south early in the American session on Thursday, but holds within familiar levels as investors await more clues on US monetary policy. The August US Producer Price Index report and the US Consumer Price Index due on Friday will likely shape the market's tone ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement next week.

Raydium's rally signals trend reversal amid network growth, buyback

Raydium maintains a firm bullish tone, posting nearly 9% gains, and extending its 41% rally from Sunday. Solana-based Decentralized Exchange is witnessing a surge in network activity and growth amid new token launches. The technical outlook for Raydium signals a potential upside toward $1.50 as momentum holds firm despite overbought conditions.

Jobs opened the door for the Fed — inflation decides whether it walks through
The latest US jobs report did not end the debate over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move. It may have done something more subtle: it gave policymakers permission to keep their options open. After months of softer labour market signals, August delivered a stronger-than-expected rebound.
Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight
The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.