Gold smashes record high as bulls eye $3,100 amid trade war turmoil
- Gold surges to fresh all-time high as safe-haven demand rises ahead of Trump’s auto tariff deadline.
- Despite core PCE uptick, Fed’s Daly sees two cuts in 2025; market now pricing in 73.5 bps of easing.
- DXY weakens, US yields slide, and global tensions mount as Canada and EU prep retaliation plans.
Gold price rallied sharply on Friday, hitting a new record high of $3,086 amid uncertainty over US trade policy, alongside an uptick in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge. After this, traders seem confident that the Fed will cut rates twice in 2025. The XAU/USD trades at 3079, up 0.79%.
The market mood is pessimistic as traders brace for April 2, the so-called “Liberation Day” by US President Donald Trump, who signed an executive order applying 25% tariffs on all cars imported to the US. This triggered reactions worldwide, primarily in Canada and the European Union (EU), which has begun preparing to retaliate against this measure.
In the meantime, the Greenback remains battered and is set to finish the week with losses of 0.11%, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which underpins the prices of precious metals. US yields are also dropping as investors seeking safety piled into Bullion and the Japanese Yen (JPY).
The US economic calendar revealed that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in February was mostly aligned with forecasts, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey in March deteriorated further.
Aside from this, San Francisco Fed Mary Daly stated that she foresees two rate cuts in 2025, adding recently that she is focused 100% on inflation due to progress being flat.
Meanwhile, money markets have priced in 73.5 basis points of Fed easing in 2025, jumping ten basis points from the previous day, according to Prime Market Terminal interest rate probabilities.
Source: Prime Market Terminal
Next week, the US economic docket will feature the April 2 Trump tariff announcement, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for March, JOLTS Job Openings and Nonfarm Payrolls.
Daily digest market movers: Gold prices set to challenge $3,100 in the short term
- The US 10-year T-note yield is plummeting, down ten basis points at 4.259%. US real yields edge down seven and a half bps to 1.887%, according to US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields.
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index held steady at 2.5% YoY in February, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.8% YoY, up slightly from the upwardly revised 2.7% in the previous month. While largely maintaining the status quo, these readings indicate that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
- The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dipped from a preliminary 57.9 to 57.0, as US households grew more pessimistic.
- One-year inflation expectations climbed to 5%, while five-year expectations rose from 3.9% to 4.1%, reflecting rising consumer concerns over future price pressures.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price rallies past $3,050, eyes on $3,100
Gold’s rally continues with the yellow metal poised to hit a record high of $3,086, clearing the path to challenge $3,100. Momentum suggests that Bullion prices seem poised to extend their gains, past the latter, with the psychological $3,150 and $3,200 exposed if cleared.
Due to the aggressiveness of the uptrend, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned overbought, exceeding 70. Nevertheless, the most extreme reading would be 80 as of the time of writing. Conversely, if the XAU/USD drops below March’s high of $3,057, this could exacerbate a pullback toward $3,000.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.
