Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD‘s focus shifts to $4,040 and $4,000 supports

Gold retraces previous gains and dips to $4.025 with the $4,000 level on the bears' focus.
Hawkish Fed minutes and mixed US jobs data have boosted the US Dollar.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and a slew of Fed speakers will drive markets during the US session.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

Gold (XAU/USD) has retraced gains from the previous three days, with precious metals on retreat as investors pare back hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The pair failed at the $4.100 area on Thursday and has pulled back to retest $4,025 support area, which guards the $4,000 psychological level.

The release of hawkish Fed minutes on Wednesday cast doubt on a Fed rate cut at the December 10 meeting, and the long-awaited September’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report has pointed in the same direction.

September’s NFP report showed that the US economy added 119K new jobs in September, beating expectations of a 50K gain and following a downwardly revised 4K decline. On the negative side, the Unemployment Rate increased unexpectedly to 4.4% from 4.3% in August.

Technical Analysis: Gold comes under renewed bearish pressure

In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,043.23, with the rising trend line from late October lows offering support near $4,025. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the early November rally, at $3,997, underpins the pullback.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips below zero and extends lower, suggesting weakening momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 43.21, below the 50 midline, highlighting the negative momentum.

Immediate resistance aligns at the November 2 highs around $4,119 ahead of the November 13 low, at the $4,1250 area, and the November 14 high near $4,210. Support is seen at the mentioned $4,025. and $3,997 levels. A downside break could expose the November 6 low, at $3,970ahead of the November 4 low, near 3,930.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

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