Forex Today: Gold hits new record-high on escalating geopolitical tensions
Here is what you need to know on Monday, December 22:
Gold gathers bullish momentum to the holiday-shortened week and trades at a new record-high above $4,400. The economic calendar will not offer any high-tier data releases on Monday, allowing investors to react to changes in risk perception.
US Dollar Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.21% | -0.10% | 0.99% | 0.18% | 0.28% | 0.52% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | -0.21% | -0.30% | 0.76% | -0.03% | 0.09% | 0.31% | -0.35% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | 0.30% | 1.18% | 0.28% | 0.40% | 0.62% | -0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.99% | -0.76% | -1.18% | -0.79% | -0.69% | -0.47% | -0.91% | |
| CAD | -0.18% | 0.03% | -0.28% | 0.79% | 0.10% | 0.34% | -0.17% | |
| AUD | -0.28% | -0.09% | -0.40% | 0.69% | -0.10% | 0.21% | -0.44% | |
| NZD | -0.52% | -0.31% | -0.62% | 0.47% | -0.34% | -0.21% | -0.66% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | 0.35% | 0.04% | 0.91% | 0.17% | 0.44% | 0.66% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Reports of Israel planning to attack Iran on growing concerns about Iran reconstituting nuclear enrichment sites and expanding its ballistic missile program cause markets to adopt a cautious stance early Monday. Citing four former US officials familiar with the development, NBC news reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet US President Donald Trump later this month to explain why they need to take military action against Iran again. After rising above 1% in the previous week, Gold turned north in the Asian session and was last seen trading at $4,405, rising more than 1.5% on the day.
Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade marginally higher after Wall Street's main indexes closed in positive territory on Friday and the US Dollar (USD) Index stays in a consolidation phase above 98.50 following the recovery seen in the second half of last week. On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Gross Domestic Product data for the third quarter.
EUR/USD corrected lower following the rally seen in the first half of the previous week and closed in negative territory to snap a three-week winning streak. The pair holds steady in the European morning on Monday and trades in a tight channel above 1.1700.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East seem to be causing oil prices to rise at the beginning of the week. At the time of press, the Barrel of West Texas Intermediate was up more than 1% on the day at $57.15.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced early Monday that it left its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. After posting marginal gains on Thursday and Friday, AUD/USD gains traction and trades near 0.6630 to start the European session.
GBP/USD ended the previous week virtually unchanged despite the volatile action see in the immediate aftermath of the Bank of England's (BoE) policy announcements. The pair edges slightly higher early Monday and trades near 1.3400.
USD/JPY corrects lower after rising nearly 1.5% on Friday and trades in negative territory below 157.50.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
