|

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to turn south if FOMC minutes confirms tapering

Gold finished last week higher despite Monday’s selloff. Investors’ focus shifts to FOMC’s July meeting minutes while XAU/USD looks to extend rebound, FXStreet’s Eren Sengezer briefs.

Next significant resistance for XAU/USD is located at $1,790

“On Tuesday, the July Retail Sales report from the US are expected sales to contract by 0.2% on a monthly basis in July following June’s expansion of 0.6%. Although a disappointing print could weigh on the USD, the market reaction is expected to remain short-lived with investors likely staying on the sidelines ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.”

“On Wednesday, July CPI data will be featured in the European economic docket and a significant reaction in the EUR/USD pair could impact the USD’s market valuation. Later in the day, the FOMC will release the minutes of its July meeting. In case this publication confirms that the Fed will go into a tightening path before the end of the year, the greenback could start to outperform its rivals and force XAU/USD to turn south.”

“On the upside, the next target is located at $1,790 (20-day SMA, static level). A daily close above that level could open the door for additional gains toward $1,800 (psychological level) and $1,805, where the 50-day, 100-day and 20-week SMAs are located.” 

“$1,760 (static level) aligns as the first technical support before $1,750 (static level, June 29 low). In case sellers bring the price below the latter, $1,740 (100-week SMA) is likely to limit XAU/USD downside in the short term.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD retreats toward 1.1700 on modest USD recovery

EUR/USD stays under mild bearish pressure and trades below 1.1750 on Friday. Although trading conditions remain thin following the New Year holiday and ahead of the weekend, the modest recovery seen in the US Dollar causes the pair to edge lower. The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases.

GBP/USD struggles to gain traction, stabilizes near 1.3450

After testing 1.3400 on the last day of 2025, GBP/USD managed to stage a rebound. Nevertheless, the pair finds it difficult to gather momentum and trades marginally lower on the day at around 1.3450 as market participants remain in holiday mood.

Gold climbs toward $4,400 following deep correction

Gold advances toward $4,400 and gains more than 1.5% on the day after suffering heavy losses amid profit-taking heading into the end of the year. Growing expectations for a dovish Fed policy and persistent geopolitical risks seem to be helping XAU/USD stretch higher.

Cardano gains early New Year momentum, bulls target falling wedge breakout

Cardano kicks off the New Year on a positive note and is extending gains, trading above $0.36 at the time of writing on Friday. Improving on-chain and derivatives data point to growing bullish interest, while the technical outlook keeps an upside breakout in focus.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).