|

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to suffer a substantial drop on a break below $1,914 – TDS

Gold bugs could find themselves offloading length in a vaccuum. A break under the $1,914 mark would leave XAU/USD vulnerable to further downfalls, strategists at TD Securities report.

Massive impulse in gold demand could be coming to an end

“The massive impulse in gold demand from ETF and comex flows could be coming to an end, in line with historical analogs as safe-haven flows tend to be short-lived. However, the bar is also razor thin for substantial trend follower liquidations in gold, while consumer demand is now showing signs of weakness following the surge in prices. 

“While a coordinated buying impulse from a broad group of gold traders had helped gold prices rise dramatically in past weeks, we could now see a coordinated reversal in flows. To start, a break below $1914/oz would catalyze a substantial selling program.”

“If the market has started to discount a future in which the growth shock could fade at a faster pace than the inflation shock, as we expected, then gold prices could be especially vulnerable to a more hawkish Fed profile, opening the door to a deeper consolidation.”

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD nearing the critical $1,900 level

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds steady below 1.1800

EUR/USD moves sideways in a narrow channel below 1.1800 as the market volatility remains low ahead of the New Year holiday. On Tuesday, investors will pay close attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting.

GBP/USD retreats below 1.3500 as trading conditions remain thin

GBP/USD corrects lower after posting strong gains in the previous week and trades below 1.3500 on Monday. With the action in financial markets turning subdued following the Christmas holiday, however, the pair's losses remain limited.

Gold holds above $4,300 after profit taking kicked in

Gold retreats sharply from the record-peak it set at $4,550 and trades below $4,400, losing more than 3% on the day. Growing optimism about a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement and profit-taking ahead of the New Year holiday seem to be causing XAU/USD to stay under heavy bearish pressure.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP bulls regain strength

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple record roughly 3% gains on Monday, regaining strength mid-holiday season. Despite thin liquidity in the holiday season, BTC and major altcoins are regaining strength as US President Donald Trump pushes peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The technical outlook for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple gradually shifts bullish as selling pressure wanes.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).