Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD slumps below $4,800 as Trump backs off European tariff threat

Gold price tumbles to around $4,790 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
Optimism after Trump backed off the European tariff threat dampened safe-haven demand.
Traders brace for the US economic data on Thursday for fresh impetus.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

Gold price ( XAU/USD) trimmed gains to near $4,790 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal retreats from a record high of $4,888 after US President Donald Trump backs off the European tariff threat and announces a framework Greenland deal.

Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Trump said he would step back from imposing tariffs on goods from European nations opposing his effort to take possession of Greenland. He added that the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) had "formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland.” Hopes for a solution in Trump’s ambitions for Greenland that would avoid tariffs could undermine traditional safe-haven assets such as Gold in the near term.

“Gold may be pausing, but the bull market is very much intact — with rate‑cut expectations, persistent geopolitical tensions and strong central‑bank buying keeping the risk skewed firmly to the upside,” said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Groep NV.

Nonetheless, Trump did not detail the parameters of the so-called “framework,” and it was unclear what the agreement entails. Germany's Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil warned against premature optimism after Trump backed off threats to impose tariffs as leverage to seize Greenland. Any signs of escalating tensions between the US and the EU could boost the yellow metal.

Traders await the final reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3), weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, which are due later on Thursday. In case of the weaker-than-expected outcomes, this could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and underpin the USD-denominated commodity price.

Gold FAQs

Why do people invest in Gold?

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Who buys the most Gold?

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

How is Gold correlated with other assets?

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

What does the price of Gold depend on?

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

AUD/USD sits near monthly top, above 0.7000 as renewed USD buying caps gains

AUD/USD holds a positive bias for the fourth straight day, trading above 0.7000 in the Asian session on Wednesday and near the monthly high set the previous day after RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's hawkish remarks. Meanwhile, the US Dollar attracts some buyers as energy-driven inflation fears keep bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 firmly on the table. Moreover, geopolitical uncertainty is acting as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck and caps gains for the Aussie.

USD/JPY eyes 158.50 amid modest USD strength; remains confined in a familiar range

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined within a multi-week range as the uncertainty over the timing of the next BoJ rate hike keep Japanese Yen bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, hawkish Fed expectations, bolstered by inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, underpin the US Dollar. However, looming intervention fears could limit JPY losses and cap the currency pair.

Gold struggles near weekly low, just above $4,100 amid USD uptick

Gold remains depressed for the fourth straight day, flirting with the weekly low during Wednesday’s Asian session, with bears awaiting a sustained break below $4,100 before placing fresh bets. Energy-driven inflation fears keep Fed hike bets firmly on the table, reviving US Dollar demand and undermining the non-yielding bullion. However, an unconfirmed report of US-Iran diplomacy could cap the safe-haven buck, which could offer some support to the precious metal.

Ethereum bounces off $2,400 for a sixth day despite ETF outflows

Ethereum (ETH) bounced again near the $2,400 level on Tuesday, the sixth straight day, as its on-chain cost basis and key moving averages have stood as key support levels. The sub-$2,400 level has proven to be a strong support for the top altcoin over the past week amid macro pressures. Buyers have repeatedly stepped in to defend prices whenever it falls below the level.

NFLX, META and TSLA deliver earnings this week. The market's mood rides on three reports

Netflix, Meta Platforms and Tesla all report earnings this week, and the market’s mood rides on three reports that could easily reset the tone for the entire market heading into the holiday season. Investors are heading into this stretch with a mix of anticipation and unease because each company represents a different pillar of market sentiment. All three have much to prove.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.