Gold might well be more supported this winter than previously forecast, but the ‘pain trade’ baseline still seems bearish bullion in 2022 and 2023, according to strategists at Citibank. They forecast XAU/USD around $1,685 in 2022.
XAU/USD to sink towards $1,500 in 2023
“We forecast average gold prices around ~$1,685/oz in 2022, declining to $1,500/oz in 2023, versus 2020/2021 annual mean prices near ~$1,800/oz.”
“We hold a 60% conviction for our bearish base case gold price outlook and concedes that prices could spike again to $1,825-1,850 this winter. But on balance, macro and micro factors tilt negative for the yellow metal next year.”
“We assign a 30% bull case scenario that gold prices post fresh nominal highs north of $2,100 by the middle of 2022. The team is sympathetic to the gold bulls’ (monetary) inflation narrative, concerns about persistent government and private debt loads, and bloated fiscal balance sheets. But ultimately, this should lift the long-term price floor for XAU/USD as opposed to buttressing an ongoing bull cycle rally, particularly if real yields are to rise and Fed tightening continues.”
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