Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD loses ground below $2,040, US GDP data eyed

Gold price holds below the mid-$2,000s amid a stronger US Dollar.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials warned patience is needed before beginning to cut rates.
The ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions might boost safe-haven flows and benefit the gold price.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. However, the uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate might lift the yellow metal ahead of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core CPI) on Thursday. At press time, gold price is trading at $2,034, losing 0.13% on the day.

The stronger-than-expected US inflation data in recent weeks has triggered market expectations of delaying the interest rate cuts. Last week, the Fed governor Christopher Waller said that Fed officials are in no rush to implement interest rate cuts. Investors expect that the US may not cut rates until June. That would far surpass previous expectations of March cuts. Traders are now pricing in the first rate cuts starting in June and the Fed’s most recent guidance pointed to three cuts this year.

The Houthis continue to attack commercial ships in the Red Sea and strengthen their weapons stockpile in Yemen, even though the US has carried out strikes on the group in recent weeks. The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the gold price as it’s perceived as a traditional safe-haven asset.

Looking ahead, gold traders will monitor the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the fourth quarter (Q4), due on Wednesday, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) on Thursday. These data could give a clear direction to the gold price.

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	2034.94
Today Daily Change	-1.70
Today Daily Change %	-0.08
Today daily open	2036.64

Trends
Daily SMA20	2024.9
Daily SMA50	2033.29
Daily SMA100	2005.98
Daily SMA200	1966.6

Levels
Previous Daily High	2041.39
Previous Daily Low	2016.09
Previous Weekly High	2041.39
Previous Weekly Low	2011
Previous Monthly High	2079.01
Previous Monthly Low	2001.9
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	2031.73
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	2025.75
Daily Pivot Point S1	2021.36
Daily Pivot Point S2	2006.07
Daily Pivot Point S3	1996.06
Daily Pivot Point R1	2046.66
Daily Pivot Point R2	2056.67
Daily Pivot Point R3	2071.96

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

AUD/USD trims some losses, bounces back to 0.7150

AUD/USD has traded on the back foot on Monday, coming close to the 0.7100 mark before rebounding toward the 0.7150 region ahead of the opening bell in Asia. The Greenback’s solid performance has kept the risk complex under pressure, sending the Aussie to fresh monthly lows on the back of rising bets for a Fed rate hike this week. on Tuesday, investors are now expected to closely follow key data releases in China.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen edges lower vs USD amid Middle East jitters as Fed, BoJ meetings loom

The USD/JPY pair attracts some buyers at the start of a new week and climbs closer to the 154.00 mark during the Asian session, reversing a part of Friday's losses. Spot prices, however, remain confined in a range held over the past week or so and within striking distance of a nearly seven-month low, touched last Tuesday, as traders await this week's key central bank events.

Gold retests $4,300; USD losses momentum

Gold picks up fresh upside traction and challenges the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The yellow metal, however, remain on the back foot on the back of marked gains in the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

JasmyCoin: Upbit delisting raises risk of further losses

JasmyCoin shows signs of stability at the time of writing on Monday. However, the token remains constrained between support at $0.0035 and resistance at $0.0040. Since May, its technical structure has continued to deteriorate, with the price falling from highs of $0.0078. JASMY’s outlook suggests that bears have the upper hand as bulls fight to defend key support levels.

Will the Fed deliver the hawkishness markets are pricing in?

Fed hike bets increase after PPI and CPI reports. Updated dot plot to be crucial for the dollar’s reaction. Warsh’s independence faces test amid Trump’s pressure for lower rates. For the Dollar to extend gains, Fed needs to satisfy current hawkish bets.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.