Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD has more room on the downside ahead of NFP

Gold climbed to its highest level since November at $1,853 on Wednesday but ended up losing more than 3% from that level to end the week deep in the negative territory below $1,800. In the view of FXStreet’s Eren Sengezer, XAU/USD is poised for further losses.

Focus shifts to the US January jobs report

“Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to rise by 238K in January. The low bar suggests that there is room for a positive surprise and a stronger-than-forecast NFP print should favour the dollar in the near-term. On the flip side, a third disappointing reading in a row could weigh on the dollar and open the door for a rebound in XAU/USD.”

“Average Hourly Earnings will be the key data point to watch. On a yearly basis, wage inflation is expected to rise to 5.1% from 4.7%. Fed policymakers are concerned that a steady rise in wages could cause consumer inflation to remain high for a prolonged period. Hence, high wage inflation should be seen as a dollar-positive and vice versa.”

“First support is located at $1,770 (static level). In case this level turns into resistance, the next bearish target could be seen at $1,755 (static level).”

“On the upside, the 100-day SMA forms the first resistance at $1,795. Even if XAU/USD reclaims that level, the 200-day SMA aligns as the next hurdle at $1,805. Only a daily close above the latter could attract buyers and help gold shake off the bearish pressure.”