Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD fades bounce off 200-DMA as US Dollar bears retreat amid holiday season

Gold price pares intraday gains but stays on the way to post the second monthly gain.
China data consolidates recent optimism amid holiday-thinned markets.
XAU/USD stays on the front foot as softer US Dollar weighs on Fed bets, China-linked news favor Gold buyers.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) retreats from intraday high surrounding $1,807 as bulls await more clues amid the holiday-thinned trading activities on early Tuesday morning in Europe. The metal’s latest pullback could be linked to the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebound from the intraday low, as well as downbeat China data.

US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates intraday losses as it bounces off the daily low of 103.95. Even so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies remains negative for the third consecutive day.

On the other hand, China’s Industrial Profits dropped 3.6% during the January-November period versus -3.0% prior.

Additionally, challenging the XAU/USD bulls could be the fresh geopolitical fears emanating from Russia, China and North Korea.

Even so, China’s easing Covid-linked activity restrictions and the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) heavy liquidity injections keep the Gold buyers hopeful.

Above all, the receding hawkish bias from the Federal Reserve (Fed), due to the recently downbeat prints of the US Core US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Durable Goods Orders, for November, seem to keep the Gold buyers hopeful.

While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.60% intraday to 3,892 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain sluggish at around 3.74% by the press time.

Moving on, the year-end liquidity crunch could join the light calendar to restrict immediate Gold moves.

Gold price technical analysis

Gold price grinds higher after bouncing off the 200-Daily Moving Average (DMA), around $1,782 by the press time. The corrective bounce takes clues from the firmer prints of the RSI (14), not overbought.

However, bearish MACD signals and an upward-sloping resistance line from December 05, close to $1,821 by the press time, challenges the precious metal’s further upside.

In a case where Gold buyers manage to cross the $1,821 hurdle, successful trading beyond the monthly high of around $1,825 becomes necessary for the XAU/USD to remain firmer.

On the downside, a daily closing below the 200-DMA support of $1,782 could quickly drag the bullion prices toward the monthly low surrounding $1,7695.

Following that, $1,740 and the late November swing low near $1,721 could lure the Gold sellers.

Overall, Gold traders are up for further advances despite the latest retreat in prices.

Gold price: Daily chart

Trend: Limited upside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	1805.44
Today Daily Change	8.01
Today Daily Change %	0.45%
Today daily open	1797.43

Trends
Daily SMA20	1790.09
Daily SMA50	1736.07
Daily SMA100	1722.25
Daily SMA200	1782.88

Levels
Previous Daily High	1797.43
Previous Daily Low	1797.43
Previous Weekly High	1823.84
Previous Weekly Low	1783.84
Previous Monthly High	1786.55
Previous Monthly Low	1616.69
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1797.43
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1797.43
Daily Pivot Point S1	1797.43
Daily Pivot Point S2	1797.43
Daily Pivot Point S3	1797.43
Daily Pivot Point R1	1797.43
Daily Pivot Point R2	1797.43
Daily Pivot Point R3	1797.43

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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