|

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes $1,773 and $1,781 amid weaker USD, yields – Confluence Detector

  • Gold price extends post-Fed upside, as US dollar, yields keep falling.
  • US Q2 GDP contraction smashes aggressive Fed rate hike expectations.
  • The path of least resistance appears northside for XAU/USD.

Gold price is extending the post-Fed bullish momentum, despite eyeing a fourth straight monthly decline this Friday. The bright metal is set to end with the biggest weekly gain since mid-May, as the US dollar correction strengthens. A less hawkish Fed decision, US Q2 GDP contraction and falling odds of a 75 bps Sept lift-off by the world’s most powerful central bank have weighed heavily on the Treasury yields, as well as, the dollar. Growing recession fears in the US and Europe have underpinned the bullion’s safe-haven appeal. The end-of-the-month flows will likely play a crucial role in impacting gold price along with the US PCE inflation going forward.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bulls target $1,773 hurdle after recapturing 21 DMA

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that the gold price is looking to extend the uptrend above the pivot point one-day R1 at $1,765.

Acceptance above which will trigger a sharp advance towards the confluence of the SMA200 four-hour and pivot point one-day R2 at $1,773.

Further up, the pivot point one-week R2 at $1,775 will challenge the bearish commitments. Doors will then open up towards the pivot point one-month S1 at $1,781.

On the flip side, the precious day’s high of $1,757 will be the immediate cushion, below which the SMA5 four-hour meet with the pivot point one-month S2 at $1,754

The next stop for sellers is seen at the pivot point one-week R1 at $1,751, followed by the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day $1,748.

Here is how it looks on the tool

fxsoriginal

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD turns south toward 0.6900 as USD firms up

AUD/USD sees fresh selling and drops toward 0.6900 in late Asian trading on Monday, as renewed US Dollar strength weighs on the pair amid lingering Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. Focus remains on Oil prices, Treasury bond yields, and RBA expectations for fresh trading impetus in the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 amid hawkish BoJ bets, firmer USD

USD/JPY erases losses and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Monday, trading within a one-week-old range. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin the US Dollar, despite fading Fed rate hike hopes, supporting the pair's rebound. However, further upside could be capped by hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks that could support the Japanese Yen.

Gold extends its struggle below $4,200

Gold clings to recovery gains near $4,150 early Monday, maintaining last week’s range. US Dollar reverts to 17-month highs despite receding Oil prices, Treasury yields, and Fed rate hike bets. Gold’s technical picture appears skewed to the downside in the near term.

Dogecoin: ETF inflows and technicals fuel recovery
Dogecoin (DOGE) extends its gains, trading above $0.096 on Monday after finding support around the key support zone last week. Continued inflows into spot DOGE Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), alongside strengthening derivatives metrics, indicate improving market sentiment. Meanwhile, the constructive technical outlook suggests the meme coin could extend its gains if the key level holds.
WTI drops to near $89.00 as G7 taps emergency reserves

West Texas Intermediate oil price extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $89.30 during Asian hours on Monday. Crude oil prices experienced a decline after G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves, pledging to avoid energy export restrictions following pressure from US President Donald Trump.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.