|

Gold Price Forecast : XAU/USD closes the week near $1,920, above the 200-day SMA

  • XAU/USD closed the week with a 1% weekly decline above the convergence of the 20 and 200-day SMAs.
  • US yields are set to close a 2% weekly increase.
  • Attention shifts to next week’s US CPI and Retail Sales from the US.

At the end of the week, the XAU/USD traded with mild losses, around $1,918. The precious metal will close the week with sharp losses, 5% for Silver and nearly 1% for Gold driven by US yields edging higher on the back of growing tightening expectations for the Federal Reserve.

In that sense, precious metals tend to be seen as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals, and the US Treasury yields consolidated their weekly rallies on Friday. The 2-year yields stand at 4.99%, while the 5 and 10-year rates are at 4.40% and 4.26%. All three saw mild gains during the session which limited the Gold’s advances on the day.
 
For next week, investors eagerly await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales figures from August in the US to continue placing their bets on the next Federal Reserve (Fed) decisions. As for now, markets expect a 25 basis point (bps) hike for the rest of the year but aren’t sure if it will come in November or December. In that sense, the incoming US data will help investors continue modelling their expectations.

XAU/USD Levels to watch 


The technical outlook for the XAU/USD appears to be neutral to bearish for the short term, with indicators turning flat in negative territory. The neutral slope of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 50 further reinforces this mixed sentiment, as does the MACD, which displays stagnant red bars. On the other hand, the metal is battling to consolidate above the convergence of the 20 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), so for now, in the larger context, the bulls command.


Support levels: $1,915 (20 and 200-day SMA convergence), $1,900, $1,880.

Resistance levels: $1,930, $1,950 (100-day SMA), $1,970.

XAU/USD Daily Chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price1918.96
Today Daily Change-0.76
Today Daily Change %-0.04
Today daily open1919.72
 
Trends
Daily SMA201915.73
Daily SMA501932.23
Daily SMA1001951.29
Daily SMA2001918.3
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1923.63
Previous Daily Low1916.29
Previous Weekly High1953.01
Previous Weekly Low1912.84
Previous Monthly High1966.08
Previous Monthly Low1884.85
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1920.83
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1919.09
Daily Pivot Point S11916.13
Daily Pivot Point S21912.54
Daily Pivot Point S31908.79
Daily Pivot Point R11923.47
Daily Pivot Point R21927.22
Daily Pivot Point R31930.81

Author

Patricio Martín

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

More from Patricio Martín
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD looks for direction around 1.3500

GBP/USD alternates gains with losses around the 1.3500 neighbourhood on Tuesday. That said, Cable struggles to extend its recent marked recovery in a context of continuous instability in the Middle East, which in turn keeps the Greenback well supported.

EUR/USD treads water around 1.1540

EUR/USD struggles to gather momentum on Tuesday, trading in an inconclusive fashion around 1.1540. Indeed, the pair’s price action comes amid the absence of clear direction in the US Dollar, as traders continue to closely follow developments in the Middle East.

Gold eases from tops, challenges $4,400

Gold retreats from its earlier tops and slips back below the key $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The precious metal’s marginal gains comes on the back of a sidelined price action in the US Dollar amid steady uncertainty from the geopolitical landscape.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidate, XRP dips as optimism for a US-Iran deal fades

Bitcoin (BTC) maintains a neutral outlook on Tuesday while testing support at $64,000. Investors appear to be sitting on the fence, awaiting a catalyst for a breakout above $65,000.

The inflation narrative is still way more important than the employment story
Core bonds sold off yesterday with the belly of the curve slightly underperforming in the US while European curves showed more of a bear flattening. Daily changes on the US curve varied between +4.7 bps (2-yr) and +6.4 bps (7-yr).
9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?
The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.