Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD, at fresh record highs, approaching $3,800
- Gols approaches fresh all-time highs $3,800, as the US Dollar drifts lower.
- Investors keep pricing in two further rate cuts in 2025, which keeps US Dollar rallies limited.
- Later today US flash PMI and Fed Powell might provide further clues about the US central bank's rate path.
Gold continues to march higher on Tuesday, reaching fresh all-time highs and nearing $3,800 after appreciating more than $140 over the last three trading days. The US Dollar’s pullback ahead of the US PMI and Fed Powell’s speech has provided further support to the precious metals.
Investors' expectations of further Fed rate cuts, on one side, and growing geopolitical concerns, namely the frictions between Russia and its NATO neighbours, have boosted demand for the safe-haven gold this week.
On Tuesday, a range of Fed speakers offered diverse opinions about the bank’s rate path, but futures markets continued to price in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in November and a 70% chance of another one in December. Against this backdrop, the US Dollar’s upside attempts are likely to remain subdued.
Technical Analysis: Gold is shouting for a bearish correction
The technical picture shows an overextended rally from mid-August lows. Bullion has appreciated nearly 15% ever since, and these performances, sooner than later, lead to corrections. The RSI is overbought at most timeframes, supporting that view.
On the upside, the psychological level at $3,800 might be a plausible target ahead of a healthy correction. Further up, the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-September pullback, at $3,828, emerges as a potential target.
To the downside, immediate support is at the intraday low of $3,738 ahead of the previous record high, in the area of $3,700. Further down, the September 15 and 19 lows, around $36,30 would come into focus.
(This story was corrected on September 23 at 11.25 GMT to say that the market is pricing two further Fed rate cuts, and not rate hikes, as previously reported)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | -0.13% | -0.03% | 0.09% | -0.19% | -0.04% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | -0.04% | -0.05% | 0.09% | -0.17% | -0.04% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.14% | -0.13% | 0.00% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | 0.05% | -0.04% | 0.10% | -0.12% | -0.02% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | -0.09% | -0.09% | -0.14% | -0.10% | -0.27% | -0.13% | -0.22% | |
| AUD | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.13% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.14% | 0.12% | |
| NZD | 0.04% | 0.04% | -0.00% | 0.02% | 0.13% | -0.14% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.22% | -0.12% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
