Gold Price Forecast: Setback potential for XAU/USD on upside inflation surprise – Commerzbank

The strong rise in the price of Gold since the beginning of March has been facilitated by purchases on the part of speculative financial investors, economists at Commerzbank say.

Sharp rise in speculative net long positions in Gold

According to the CFTC statistics on market positioning published on Friday, the net long positions of speculative financial investors rose to 109.8 thousand contracts in the week up to and including March 5, which almost doubled and corresponded to purchases of the equivalent of 167 tons of gold on the futures market within a week. 

As the Gold price has risen by a further 3% since the reporting date, speculative net long positions are also likely to have increased again. However, this also increases the setback potential for the Gold price should these short-term oriented investors take profits. One trigger could be today's US inflation data, should it surprise to the upside and thus put a damper on expectations of interest rate cuts. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has risen to an extremely high level, also calls for caution, indicating a short-term overshooting.