|

Gold Price Forecast: Acceptance above $1,870 is critical for XAU/USD bulls – Confluence Detector

Gold price is struggling to extend the upside beyond the critical $1,870 supply zone, despite the extended weakness in the US Treasury yields and the dollar. Increased calls for the global central banks to act to tackle inflation are limiting gold’s bullish momentum. Although, gold bulls continue to benefit from the persistent worries and the recent retreat in the US rates from three-week highs. Fed speculation and inflation concerns will continue to drive the sentiment around the yields and gold price.

Read: Gold Price Forecast: Falling yields could fuel a sustained break above $1,878 in XAU/USD

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold price is wavering below the critical topside hurdle of $1,870, which is the meeting point of the previous week’s high and the previous day’s high.

Acceptance above the latter will kick start a fresh advance towards $1,880, where the pivot point one-day R2 lies.

Ahead of that the confluence of the pivot point one-day R1 and Bollinger Band four-hour Upper at $1,873 will guard the upside.

If the bulls flex their muscles, then the pivot point one-month R3 at $1,884 will get tested.

Alternatively, sellers need a strong foothold below $1,862, the convergence of the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day and SMA5 one-day, to take over complete control.

The next critical cushion is seen at $1,857, the intersection of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and Fibonacci 23.6% one-week.

The pivot point one-month R2 at $1,850 is the last line of defense for gold optimists.

Here is how it looks on the tool

fxsoriginal

About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

More from Dhwani Mehta
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD turns south toward 0.6900 as USD firms up

AUD/USD sees fresh selling and drops toward 0.6900 in late Asian trading on Monday, as renewed US Dollar strength weighs on the pair amid lingering Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. Focus remains on Oil prices, Treasury bond yields, and RBA expectations for fresh trading impetus in the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 amid hawkish BoJ bets, firmer USD

USD/JPY erases losses and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Monday, trading within a one-week-old range. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin the US Dollar, despite fading Fed rate hike hopes, supporting the pair's rebound. However, further upside could be capped by hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks that could support the Japanese Yen.

Gold flat lines below $4,150 as rallying USD offsets receding Fed hike bets

Gold extends its consolidative price move, trading below $4,150 heading into the European session, and moves within a range held over the past week or so. As investors look past Friday's disappointing US jobs data, the US Dollar regains strong positive traction and rallies to a fresh high since April 2025. This is seen as a key factor capping the commodity, though receding bets for an October rate hike by the Federal Reserve help limit the downside.

BNB: Derivatives back bullish upside continuation

BNB, formerly known as Binance Coin, edges lower trading around $790 on Monday after posting three consecutive weekly gains. Rising Open Interest and positive funding rates suggest that bullish positioning is strengthening in the derivatives market.

Economics week ahead
In the U.S., the September ISM Services index is expected to ease modestly while continuing to signal expansion, with particular attention on whether price pressures remain elevated. In Canada, the labor market likely rebounded in September, although broader trends still point to a cooling pace of employment growth.
The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.