Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD trades below the 200-day SMA

Gold sellers look to establish a foothold below the 200-day SMA.
That may invite stronger selling pressure, leading to a deeper decline toward November lows.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

Gold is currently trading below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,848, having closed below the long-term technical line on Wednesday.

It remains to be seen if the latest break below the widely-tracked average is sustained. The SMA was breached in late November and couple of times earlier this month. However, sellers failed to establish a foothold under the average support then.

Should sellers succeed this time, more bears may join the market, yielding a deeper decline. Major support is seen at $1,764 (November low).

A close above the lower high of $1,875 created on Jan. 21 would confirm a reversal higher and expose resistance at $1,959 (Jan. 6 high).

Daily chart

Trend: Bearish

Technical levels

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1837.04
Today Daily Change	-3.76
Today Daily Change %	-0.20
Today daily open	1840.8

Trends
Daily SMA20	1870.71
Daily SMA50	1857.49
Daily SMA100	1880.14
Daily SMA200	1849.97

Levels
Previous Daily High	1853.2
Previous Daily Low	1831.36
Previous Weekly High	1875.2
Previous Weekly Low	1802.8
Previous Monthly High	1906.87
Previous Monthly Low	1775.52
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1839.7
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1844.86
Daily Pivot Point S1	1830.37
Daily Pivot Point S2	1819.95
Daily Pivot Point S3	1808.53
Daily Pivot Point R1	1852.21
Daily Pivot Point R2	1863.63
Daily Pivot Point R3	1874.05

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

AUD/USD gains traction near 0.7100 as the post-Fed USD rally pauses

AUD/USD finds fresh buyers and retakes 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as the US Dollar pauses its hawkish Fed-inspired rally to its highest level since late July. However, RBA rate-hike bets and hopes for US-Iran diplomatic efforts lift risk sentiment and support the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar and the major.

USD/JPY reverses a dip below 156.00 as focus shifts to BoJ

USD/JPY is reversing a brief dip below 156.00 in the Asian session on Thursday, looking to snap a three-day winning streak to a nearly two-week top set the previous day. The US Dollar pauses following the post-Fed rally to seven-week highs, while a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ's policy normalization path supports the Japanese Yen. This keeps the pair's upside limited, with the focus now shifting to the BoJ policy decision due on Friday.

Gold retakes $4,300 amid modest USD pullback but hawkish Fed caps upside

Gold climbs back above the $4,300 mark heading into the European session on Thursday, though it remains within striking distance of a six-week low touched the previous day. The US Dollar eases after touching a fresh high since late July and offers some support to the commodity. However, the Fed's hawkish outlook, along with escalating Middle East tensions, should continue to underpin the safe-haven and cap the non-yielding bullion.

XRP and XLM rebound amid mixed signals

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) extend their recovery at the time of writing on Thursday after finding support at key technical levels. However, mixed derivatives and on-chain data for both altcoins suggest that traders remain cautious and have yet to show strong conviction in a sustained rebound. Derivatives data shows a mixed and cautious outlook among traders.

BoE expected to hold interest rate at 3.75%

The Bank of England (BoE) is set to reveal its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday, coinciding with its sixth rate-setting meeting of 2026. Market analysts expect the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75%, which should be its sixth hold in a row following December’s 25-bps rate cut.

How Japan became the World's Banker and why that era may be ending

Japan's ultra-low interest rates helped finance trillions of dollars in global investments for more than a decade, making the Japanese Yen one of the world’s cheapest sources of funding. With the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy again this week, that advantage may be entering a new phase. While most major economies raised interest rates, Japan remained the world's outlier.