Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD bears just can't catch a break

Gold prices are stubbornly bid within a bearish environment.
Uncertainty and volatility keeping the yellow metal coiled in a familiar range.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

The price of the yellow metal has so far been held up sideways in a $1,897.91-$1,911.35 range on Tuesday, currently bid up some 0.32%.

The price had been slowly chipping away to the downside below resistance and within a bearish environment on the weekly chart.

However, the price is caught up in fundamentals which are making for s gruelling swing trade for the bears, positioned for a downside continuation.

Gold could be in what is now a wait-and-see mode ahead of US elections on the 3rd of November.

Markets are evaluating the potential for a fiscal stimulus deal to be struck in the lame-duck session which hinges on the election results.

A Biden victory ( Blue wave) could keep gold bid

''Certainly, a Blue Wave has driven expectations of a lower dollar, as more stimulus fuels a global reflationary wave, but it has also fueled the bear steepening in the Treasury curve,'' analysts at TD Securities argued.

''While we think the Fed will mitigate these risks shortly after the election by extending the duration of QE, the Fed is taking a reactive approach — which suggests that rates may need to rise to prompt them to act.''

Overall, a Biden landslide is expected to weigh on the greenback that has so far enjoyed bouts of demand on risk-off flows. A weaker dollar should amount to higher gold prices.

However, under a split government scenario, achieving consensus on a large package and details regarding state aid could be tough.

This should bull flatten the yield curve, providing another risk mitigant in this scenario, the analysts at TD Securities have argued, adding:

''In the medium-term, the balance of risks remain firmly tiled to the upside for gold bugs, as traders may not need to look too far in order to discount these risk mitigants. For the moment, the waning upside momentum has raised the bar for CTAs to add to their longs in the yellow metal.''

Gold technical analysis

Gold Price Analysis: Remains below key counter-trendline resistance

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1906.64
Today Daily Change	4.59
Today Daily Change %	0.24
Today daily open	1902.05

Trends
Daily SMA20	1902.86
Daily SMA50	1921.41
Daily SMA100	1883.41
Daily SMA200	1763.61

Levels
Previous Daily High	1908.66
Previous Daily Low	1891.32
Previous Weekly High	1931.54
Previous Weekly Low	1894.48
Previous Monthly High	1992.42
Previous Monthly Low	1848.82
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1902.04
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1897.94
Daily Pivot Point S1	1892.69
Daily Pivot Point S2	1883.34
Daily Pivot Point S3	1875.35
Daily Pivot Point R1	1910.03
Daily Pivot Point R2	1918.02
Daily Pivot Point R3	1927.37

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

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