Gold: Markets hold a ‘max long’ position size – TDS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

This is not the same Gold market as just a few short months ago, TDS senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

Scope for further gains is limited

“Discretionary traders continue to hold a larger position than warranted by the rates market outlook for Fed cuts, which are arguably somewhat rich. CTAs now effectively hold a 'max long' position size, suggesting little scope to add without a re-leveraging process.”

“While we expect central bank buying activity to persist, Asia remains on a buyer's strike with only nascent signs of a bid over the last sessions. After all, price action in Asian currencies has diminished the appetite for precious metals as a currency depreciation hedge.”

“A safe-haven bid associated with Middle Eastern geopolitical risks may be supporting prices, but the scope for further gains is limited by positioning dynamics for the time being without a more significant escalation or a deepening outlook for Federal Reserve cuts.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD regains mild traction, falters near 0.7150

AUD/USD gathers some steam and manages to flirt with the 0.7150 level on Thursday. However, the pair has retraced some of Wednesday’s significant pullback due to renewed selling pressure on the Greenback and a slight improvement in risk sentiment following hopes of a deal in the Middle East. Wrapping up the Australian docket, the RBA’s Hauser will speak early on Friday.

USD/JPY: Japanese Yen coiled at the line, leaning on everyone but Japan

The Yen is doing very little, and that stasis is the whole story. USD/JPY sits glued near 160.00 not because Japan has found new strength, but because two outside forces are fighting to a draw over it: a US rate complex that keeps the dollar bid, and a Ministry of Finance that refuses to let the line break.

Gold puts its 200-day SMA to the test near $4,420

Gold keeps the bullish stance in place in the latter part of Thursday’s session, although a convincing break above the key $4,500 mark per troy ounce still remains elusive. The precious metal’s advance comes amid the resurgence of some selling interest around the Greenback, improving risk sentiment, and declining US Treasury yields across the board.

Bitcoin falls below $64K as demand turns negative, short-term holders' selling intensifies

Bitcoin has fallen below $64,000 on Thursday amid weakening market demand and mounting selling pressure from short-term holders. The leading cryptocurrency slipped toward the $63,000 level amid a broader risk-off environment, with several key metrics signaling one of the most challenging periods of the current market cycle.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.