Gold holds steady amid Fed rate-cut speculation and geopolitical uncertainties

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its intraday bounce from the $3,627-3,626 region and trades with a negative bias through the first half of the European session on Monday. Rising bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed near its lowest level since July 24 and might continue to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Apart from this, rising geopolitical tensions turn out to be another factor lending some support to the safe-haven commodity.

The XAU/USD pair, however, remains confined in a one-week-old trading range as traders opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path before placing fresh directional bets amid still overbought conditions in the daily chart. Hence, the focus remains on the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. In the meantime, a positive risk tone is seen acting as a headwind for the Gold price. Nevertheless, the supportive fundamental backdrop suggests that any corrective slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold bulls turn cautious ahead of the crucial FOMC policy decision this week

• Traders ramped up their bets for three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year after the recent US macro data pointed to a softening labor market. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders see a 100% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs for the first time in nine months at the end of a two-day meeting on Wednesday.
• Moreover, the Fed is expected to deliver two more rate cuts, in October and in December, which keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed and the US Dollar close to its lowest level since July 24. This, in turn, assists the non-yielding Gold to attract some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and reverse a modest Asian session dip to the $3,627-3,626 region.
• Ukraine launched a large attack on Russian energy facilities on Sunday amid intensifying drone strikes from both sides. The US has stepped up pressure on NATO countries to tighten energy sanctions on Russia and impose tariffs on countries buying Russian oil in a bid to curtail its revenues and end the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II.
• Meanwhile, an Iranian lawmaker, Mojtaba Zarei, has called on Qatar to expel US forces and host Iranian Revolutionary Guard hypersonic missiles to counter Israeli threats. This keeps geopolitical risks in play ahead of an Arab-Islamic leaders' summit in Doha and turns out to be another factor that continues to offer some support to the safe-haven precious metal.
• The XAU/USD bulls, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets and might opt to wait for this week's key central bank event risks. The Bank of Canada and the US Fed will announce their rate decisions on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England policy update on Thursday and the outcome of a two-day Bank of Japan policy meeting on Friday.
• Meanwhile, investors will look for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which will drive the USD demand in the near-term and provide a fresh directional impetus to the commodity. Hence, the focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments at the post-meeting press conference and updated economic projections, which include the so-called dot plot.

Gold remains confined in a one-week-old trading range; bullish potential seems intact

From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in overbought territory and backs the case for an extension of the range-bound price action before the next leg up. That said, momentum beyond the $3,657-3,658 immediate hurdle should allow the Gold price to retest the all-time peak, around the $3,675 zone touched last Tuesday and climb further towards conquering the $3,700 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the $3,627-3,626 zone, could offer immediate support ahead of the $3,610-3,600 region. Some follow-through selling below last week's swing low, around the $3,580 region, could make the Gold price vulnerable to extend the corrective slide towards the $3,565-3,560 intermediate support en route to the $3,500 psychological mark.