|

Gold bears looking for a brak of the $1,300/oz level to 38.2% Fibo target down at $1,275/oz

  • Gold is headed for a test of the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the mid-August swing lows to recent swing highs.
  • Bears are testing below the ascending channel's support. 
  • Gold is trading at $1,314/oz, down from the day's highs of $1,327/oz having printed a daily low of $1,313.11oz. 

Gold prices have been steadily declining since last week's highs of $1,343/oz and has made a fresh reversal low today following the unexpected uptick in US GDP Q4. The advanced read on Q4 US GDP came in stronger than expected at 2.6% saar vs the market's expectations of 2.2%, vs Q3 3.4%. The data superseded the risk-off mood on the news of an abrupt end to the U.S.-North Korea denuclearization talks. 

"News that Trump walked out of his meeting with Kim Jong Un because the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement over North Korea’s nuclear disarmament dashed hopes for an easing in geopolitical tensions," analysts at ANZ explained.

"After the meeting Trump said Kim wanted US sanctions lifted “in their entirety” in exchange for partial denuclearisation. However, North Korean foreign minister Ri Yong-Ho later disputed this claim saying they were only after a partial removal of sanctions and that they offered a realistic proposal. The summit’s abrupt end saw global equities slip. There’s been no indication from the US of whether it will consider another summit."

Gold levels

The price of gold is at a critical juncture, albeit oversold on the hourly charts and trading above its ATR of 11.01. Bears are targetting the 23.6% Fibo down at 1302 while daily stochastics lean bearish and near-term stochastics offer some wiggle room before sellers will likely come up for a breath of air. Bears will look to guard the trend line support area around 1318/20 for prospects of a break of the 1300 handle and onto the 38.2% fibo located at 1275, with the confluence of the late Jan support area. 

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD recovers to 1.1750 region as 2025 draws to a close

Following the bearish action seen in the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD regains its traction and recovery to the 1.1750 region. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low as trading conditions thin out on the last day of the year.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD remains under modest beairsh pressure and fluctuates at around 1.3450 on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull. 

Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains

Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).