- Gold consolidates as market get set for a breakout, one way or the other.
- Month-end flows could be the trigger to set off a phase of distribution.
The price of gold has accumulated bids and offers in a precarious spot on the charts, drawing in anticipation of a phase of distribution.
On the day, the price has stuck to a tight range of between $1,765.94 and $1,775.69 and is down by 0.07% at the time of writing.
However, gold futures settled with a modest gain and leaves the prospects for a positive half of a year by quarter-end for prices.
COVID-19 is a major factor for gold's safe-haven flows and a second wave hitting global economies, is bound to keep prices elevated.
However, profit-taking could well be a consequence of month-end which could potentially lead to a technical breakdown in the chart. See below.
Declining real rates should imminently support gold prices into the $1800s
However, the fundamentals are a likely factor to keep bears second guesing.
"Indeed, with rates vol constrained, rising long-term inflation expectations have been a powerful driver lifting gold prices higher,' analysts at TD Securities explained.
Price action continues to lend strength to our view that gold's role is shifting from a safe-haven asset, to an inflation-hedge product.
Looking forward, we also see substantial room for this driver to run, as the entire maturity spectrum of inflation breakevens are still priced below policy objectives.
In this context, declining real rates should imminently support gold prices into the $1800s.
The analysts also explained that "the world-war era fiscal and central bank stimulus, the change in the central bank template that will incorporate 'symmetric inflation targets' and unwinding globalization, also suggest that inflation-hedge assets may grow in popularity.
Eventual tailwinds in commodity demand should also be particularly supportive of silver prices, which have retained their historically high sensitivity to their industrial component.'
Gold levels
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.