German IFO and retail sales amongst market movers today

Research Team at Danske Bank suggests that German IFO assessment and retail sales data will be amongst the major market moving events for today.

Key Quotes

“German Ifo expectations are also due to be released Today. Ifo expectations saw a fall in January to 103.2 from 105.5 in December 2016, but increased to 104.0 again in February. We believe it will have increased a bit further to 104.3 in March. Other survey indicators still indicate optimism in the business economy but German consumer confidence has started to trend lower and in coming months,we expect the same correction in the strong business sentiment seen recently.”

“German retail sales for February are also due for release. In January, we saw a monthly decline of 1.0% but we estimate a bounce back in February to 0.6%, as consumer confidence remains at a high level and low unemployment supports consumption. Note also that German unemployment figures are scheduled for release on Friday.”

“We also have two speeches from ECB executive board members. Peter Praet is set to speak on Monday, with Benoit Coeuré due to speak on Friday. The speeches are of special interest to market participants, as speculation about whether the ECB could hike rates before the termination of the QE programme has started to be priced in.”

“On the date front today, in the euro area we are due to get the February figures for loan growth and M3 money supply growth. Loan growth increased for three consecutive months, from 1.8% yearly growth in October 2016 to 2.2% in January 2017. We estimate it increased further to 2.4% in February.”

“The main event this week is set to be the UK's triggering of Article 50 on Wednesday. The first part of the negotiations will be centred on the 'divorce bill' for the UK. The EU has made it clear that substantial progress on this issue will have been delivered before starting negotiations on a new trade deal.”

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