Geopolitical breakout: Why Russia sanctions pushed PBF Energy to a critical technical test

PBF Energy Inc. (PBF), a major U.S. petroleum refiner, experienced an explosive day on Thursday, surging 15.67% to close at $34.10. This aggressive move was fueled not only by recent analyst upgrades but, more significantly, by the increase in global oil costs due to new U.S. sanctions on Russia. By limiting or halting Russian oil sales, particularly to large markets like India, the resulting reduction in global supply has sharply increased demand—and market pricing power—for domestic refiners like PBF.

Technical analysis shows that this fundamental catalyst has propelled PBF directly to a critical technical pivot.

Price closed just fractionally beneath a significant, long-term horizontal trendline at $34.20, a barrier that has successfully contained the stock since August 2024. With the geopolitical momentum now firmly behind the stock, PBF is highly likely to pierce and establish price above this $34.20 ceiling.

Once price records multiple closing days above $34.20, pullbacks should be treated as potential buying opportunities.

The next major resistance level is found at $38.25. This level could serve as the first speed bump for the ultimate technical near-term target at $44.06. The current inclining trendline is likely to continue to define the trajectory to this final target.