Analysts at Nomura offered their GDP tracking update after today's US data.
"In terms of GDP accounting, the relevant components of the durable goods report were negative for Q2 GDP tracking. Core capital goods shipments, which are a proxy for business equipment investment, rose moderately by 0.3%, but the March reading was revised lower to -0.3% from +0.5%, lowering the jumping-off point for business investment for Q2."
"Elsewhere, durable goods inventories—an input for inventory investment of GDP—continued to decline, whereas we had expected a slight increase. Pending home sales, on the other hand, jumped strongly in April, suggesting better existing home sales in the coming months. This should boost real estate broker commissions, a component of residential investment. All things considered, our Q2 GDP tracking estimate was revised down by 0.1pp to 2.4%, from 2.5% previously.
On our Q1 GDP tracking estimate, the downward revision to core capital goods shipments for March was slightly negative. As a result, we also revised down our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp, to 0.8% from 0.9% previously."
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