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GBP/USD sits at nine-month highs on the UK election day

  • Sterling has rallied by 10% since early September.
  • Markets seem to have priced in a Conservative victory.
  • Investors are hedged for an unexpected election outcome. 

GBP/USD is solidly bid at nine-month highs above 1.3220 on the UK election day. 

Britons will vote on Thursday in an election that will make the way for Brexit under Prime Minister Boris Johnson or push Britain toward another referendum that could lead to a reversal of the 2016 Brexit vote. 

Markets priced in Johnson's victory

Sterling is currently reporting a 10.5 percent gain on the low of 1.1958 registered in early September. 

A major part of the rally has been fueled by opinion polls forecasting a strong victory for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party. 

Conservatives' lead over Labour has narrowed in the last 48 hours. So far, that has failed to apply brakes on the GBP rally. 

Put simply, markets seem confident that Johnson will win a majority and appear to have priced in a Conservative victory. 

Investors hedged for an unexpected outcome

The solid rally in the spot is accompanied by a surge in demand for the GBP/USD put options, as discussed on Wednesday. 

It indicates the investors have hedged themselves for an unexpected outcome - a Labour victory or a hung parliament. 

Polls open at 0700 GMT

Voting will begin at 0700 GMT and close at 2200 GMT when an exit poll will give the first indications of the result. Official results from the bulk of United Kingdom's 650 different constituencies begin to come in from 2300 GMT to 0500 GMT, according to Reuters. 

Impact on GBP

British Pound will likely see a final leg higher during the Asian session on Friday if Prime Minister Johnson gets a majority as expected. Later, the British currency could see a "sell the fact" pullback. Sterling will take a beating on an expected outcome. 

Technical levels

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price1.3223
Today Daily Change0.0016
Today Daily Change %0.12
Today daily open1.3208
 
Trends
Daily SMA201.2987
Daily SMA501.284
Daily SMA1001.2548
Daily SMA2001.2697
 
Levels
Previous Daily High1.3214
Previous Daily Low1.3108
Previous Weekly High1.3167
Previous Weekly Low1.2896
Previous Monthly High1.2986
Previous Monthly Low1.2769
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1.3173
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1.3148
Daily Pivot Point S11.3139
Daily Pivot Point S21.307
Daily Pivot Point S31.3033
Daily Pivot Point R11.3245
Daily Pivot Point R21.3283
Daily Pivot Point R31.3352

Author

Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

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