GBP/USD Price Forecast: Retains bullish bias above 1.3550 above the 100-day EMA

GBP/USD trades with mild gains around 1.3440 in Monday’s Asian session.
The pair keeps the bullish vibe above the 100-day EMA, but consolidation cannot be ruled out in the near term.
The immediate resistance level is seen at 1.3588; the initial support level is located at 1.3365.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.3440 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The latest optimism fueled by a trade deal between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) triggers a fresh wave of the global risk-on sentiment, which boosts the Pound Sterling (GBP). All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision later on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected.

Technically, GBP/USD keeps the bullish vibe on the daily chart, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further consolidation or temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out in the near term as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds below the midline near 43.25.

The first upside target to watch for the major pair is seen at 1.3588, the high of July 24. Extended gains could see a rally to 1.3681, the high of July 4. Further north, the next hurdle is located at 1.3725, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band.

On the other hand, the initial support level for GBP/USD emerges at 1.3365, the low of July 16. A breach of this level could expose 1.3330, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The additional downside filter to watch is 1.3236, the low of May 8.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

GBP/USD gathers strength to near 1.3550 as Fed hike bets fade, UK jobs data loom

The GBP/USD pair gains momentum to around 1.3550 during the early Asian trading hours. The US Dollar softens against the British Pound as cooler US inflation data have prompted traders to reduce bets on a US Federal Reserve rate hike. The UK employment report will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday.

EUR/USD flat lines below two-month high amid oil-driven inflation fears

The EUR/USD pair holds steady around the 1.1575-1.1580 region during the Asian session, and for now seems to have stalled the previous day's modest pullback from a two-month top. However, a modest US Dollar uptick warrants some caution before positioning for the resumption of the recent move higher from the 1.1350 area, or the July monthly swing low.

Gold drifts lower amid oil-driven inflation risks and US-Iran tensions

Gold attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session uptick, stalling a two-day move higher from the $4,300 neighborhood. The US Dollar builds on the overnight bounce from a two-month trough as inflation risks stemming from higher crude oil prices underpin prospects for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in 2026. Adding to this, the US-Iran standoff keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and further underpins the safe-haven Greenback, which is seen exerting pressure on the precious metal.

Ripple and Stellar remain under bearish pressure as corrective declines cap upside

Ripple and Stellar remain under pressure as broader market uncertainty and weak technical momentum weigh on both altcoins. XRP is hovering below the key $1 mark on Tuesday while XLM continues its corrective decline below $0.157. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives and on-chain signals indicate cautious sentiment, leaving both cryptocurrencies vulnerable to further downside.

Silver’s new era: Supply deficits meet exploding industrial demand

Silver has experienced a wild ride in 2026, but The Silver Institute President and CEO Michael DiRienzo says investors shouldn’t let the volatility obscure a much bigger story: the underlying silver market remains remarkably strong.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.