GBP/USD Price Analysis: Doji candlesticks around 1.2430 flashes bulls/bears’ indecision

GBP/USD cracking 1.2400 could trigger a bearish resumption, exposing 100 and 200-day EMAs at 1.2173.
Buyers pushing GBP/USD above 1.2400 could spark upward momentum and test YTD high at 1.2546.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

After a tranche of UK and US economic data, GBP/USD stays in sideways choppy trading, keeping the pair scrambling for direction following the last three days of uncertainty. From a technical perspective, three doji’s in a row suggests neither buyers’ nor sellers’ commitment to open fresh positions. Hence, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2439 after printing a low at 1.2367, below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

GBP/USD Price Action

Friday’s session was titled downwards, but since the early North American session, the GBP/USD aimed up, about to erase its earlier losses. Although the GBP/USD warrants further upside, price action in the last few days suggests buyers might be losing momentum. Indicators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), turned flat though tilted downwards, heading into neutral territory. At the same time, the Rate of Change (RoC) edged lower when compared to Thursday’s price action, suggesting that buying pressure is fading.

Therefore, the GBP/USD path of least resistance is downwards. The GBP/USD needs to crack the 1.2400 figure for a bearish resumption. Once cleared, the pair could dive towards the 20-day EMA at 1.2386, followed by the confluence of the April 3 low and the 50-day EMA at 1.2274/76. A breach of the latter and the GBP/USD could plunge toward the confluence of the 100 and 200-day Emas, around 1.2173.

On the flip side, if GBP/USD stays above 1.2400, it could test the April 19 cycle high at 1.2474. Buyers reclaiming the latter, upside risks will clear at 1.2500, followed by the YTD high at 1.2546.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD

Overview
Today last price	1.2437
Today Daily Change	-0.0006
Today Daily Change %	-0.05
Today daily open	1.2443

Trends
Daily SMA20	1.2402
Daily SMA50	1.2202
Daily SMA100	1.2196
Daily SMA200	1.1924

Levels
Previous Daily High	1.2468
Previous Daily Low	1.2405
Previous Weekly High	1.2546
Previous Weekly Low	1.2344
Previous Monthly High	1.2424
Previous Monthly Low	1.1803
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1.2444
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1.2429
Daily Pivot Point S1	1.2409
Daily Pivot Point S2	1.2375
Daily Pivot Point S3	1.2346
Daily Pivot Point R1	1.2473
Daily Pivot Point R2	1.2502
Daily Pivot Point R3	1.2536

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK PMI data

Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD clings to small gains above 1.3300 in the American session on Friday, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales and July PMI data. Nevertheless, the pair's upside remains capped as investors cling to a cautious stance amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US July PMI data failed to trigger relevant price action.

EUR/USD remains below 1.1400 after mixed US PMIs

EUR/USD pressures daily lows below the 1.1400 mark in the American session on Friday. Mixed S&P Global PMIs, as manufacturing output contracted while services activity expanded in July, triggered no relevant market reaction. The focus remains in Middle East developments and inflation-related concerns.

Gold reclaims $4,100 os Iran diplomacy hopes temper Fed hike bets and weigh on USD

Gold looks set to build on a modest bullish gap-up opening on Monday, beyond $4,100, as hopes of US-Iran peace talks weigh heavily on crude oil prices, easing inflation fears and tempering Fed rate-hike bets. Moreover, the optimism drags the safe-haven US Dollar away from a one-month top, touched on Friday, and supports the non-yielding bullion. The focus now shifts to the crucial FOMC policy meeting this week.

Week ahead: Fed, BoE and BoJ face inflation test as markets reprice interest rate paths

The US dollar gained against the other major currencies this week amid the escalating tensions in the Middle East as well as US President Trump’s decision to proceed with a new round of tariffs after previously imposed levies expired.

Australian Dollar outlook: Chances of another rally won’t be decided in Canberra, but in Washington

The Australian Dollar rode a rollercoaster in the first half of the year, hitting a four-year high and then correcting. The currency enters the second half with an outlook full of uncertainty due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East, which clouds the inflation outlook and interest rates.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.