GBP/USD falls to near 1.3450, upside appears on fading BoE rate cut bets

GBP/USD may regain its ground amid the easing likelihood of further rate cuts by the BoE.
BoE’s Mann said rates should stay high to curb inflation risks.
The US Dollar may struggle amid rising concerns over Fed independence.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

GBP/USD retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 1.3450 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair may regain its ground as the Pound Sterling (GBP) receives support from the dampened likelihood of further Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts, driven by persistent inflationary pressures. Inflation in the UK economy has been accelerating at a faster pace in recent months.

Catherine Mann, a member of the BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), said on Tuesday that the bank rate should be held persistently to lean against inflation risks. She also stated, “I stand ready for a forceful policy action, in the form of larger, more rapid Bank Rate cuts, should the downside risks to domestic demand start materializing.”

The GBP/USD pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) recovers its recent losses from the previous session. However, the upside of the Greenback could be restrained as traders remain cautious amid rising Fed concerns and the prospect of a more dovish Fed.

US President Donald Trump announced early Tuesday that he was removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her position on the Fed's board of directors. This is considered the first instance of a president firing a central bank governor in the Fed’s 111-year history. Trump also said that he was ready for a legal fight with Cook over falsified mortgage documents.

Fed Governor Cook’s exit may increase the chances of earlier interest rate cuts, given Trump’s ongoing pressure on the central bank to reduce borrowing costs. Traders are now pricing in more than 87% odds for a cut of at least a quarter-point at the Fed’s September meeting, up from 84% previous day, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Akhtar Faruqui

FXStreet

Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.

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