GBP/USD drops to two-week low, around 1.3500 amid dovish BoE and firmer USD

GBP/USD attracts sellers for the third straight day and is pressured by a combination of factors.
The risk-off impulse and expectations for a less dovish Fed continue to lend support to the USD.
The BoE’s dovish signal on Thursday undermines the GBP and also contributes to the offered tone.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair adds to the previous day's dovish Bank of England (BoE)-inspired heavy losses and drifts lower for the third straight day on Friday. The downward trajectory is sponsored by sustained US Dollar (USD) buying and drags spot prices to a two-week low during the Asian session, with bears now awaiting a break below the 1.3500 psychological mark before placing fresh bets.

The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair fueled speculations that the US central bank will be less dovish than expected. This, along with a rise in volatility, benefits the USD's status as the global reserve currency. In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, climbs to a fresh high since January 23 and turns out to be a key factor exerting pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, is undermined by the 5-4 MPC vote split to leave rates unchanged at the end of the February policy meeting on Thursday and the BoE's dovish outlook. In fact, the central bank signaled a future cut if inflation continued to slow. Moreover, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, addressing reporters during the post-meeting press conference, said that inflation is set to reach the target level sooner than expected.

Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the BoE this year, which further contributes to the offered tone surrounding the GBP/USD pair. Meanwhile, the US Fed is also expected to lower borrowing costs two more times in 2026. This, in turn, holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and offers some support to the currency pair, though the fundamental backdrop backs the case for further losses.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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