GBP/USD whips but sees little momentum as markets digest middling Fed Powell comments

GBP/USD tested lower, but recovered to nearly flat on the day post-Fed.
Fed held rates steady as rate futures broadly anticipated.
Fed Chair Powell: the Fed doesn't act until seeing more than we see now.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

On Wednesday, GBP/USD fluctuated, dipping below 1.2420 before rising back to 1.2450 as the ongoing battle between bulls and bears resulted in less-than-noteworthy intraday volatility. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates unchanged, as expected by rate futures markets, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing their data-driven strategy for rate modifications.

Chair Powell highlighted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is monitoring the policies enacted by US President Donald Trump closely, but he confirmed that President Trump has not communicated directly with the Fed. As an independent federal entity, the White House exerts minimal influence over the Federal Reserve's policy directions. Additionally, Powell remarked that while inflation is gradually approaching the median target levels, the current economic conditions, alongside concerns regarding President Trump’s extensive trade policies, mean the Fed is not in a hurry to alter the restrictiveness of monetary policy rates.

Furthermore, rate markets have reduced their expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025. Based on the CME's FedWatch Tool, rate futures markets anticipate no changes in the federal funds rate until at least June.

GBP/USD one-hour chart

Economic Indicator

Fed Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin and Ethereum edge lower, XRP extends recovery as macro headwinds weigh

The broader cryptocurrency market is consolidating on Friday, with Bitcoin paring losses slightly above $84,000. Ethereum declines in tandem with BTC. Ripple (XRP), meanwhile, paints a different picture.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.