GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bulls flirt with 200.00 mark ahead of UK macro data

GBP/JPY trades with positive bias for the third straight day and remains close to the YTD peak.
Domestic political uncertainty and a positive risk tone undermine the JPY and support the pair.
Bulls need to wait for acceptance above 200 as the focus remains on the UK macro data dump.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/JPY cross attracts buyers for the third consecutive day, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the positive move beyond the 200.00 psychological mark during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, meanwhile, remain well within striking distance of the highest level since July 2024 touched earlier this week, as traders now look forward to the UK macro data dump for some impetus heading into the weekend.

In the meantime, the uncertainty over the likely timing and the pace of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY). Furthermore, the upbeat market mood is seen as another factor denting the JPY's relative safe-haven status and acting as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross. Adding to this, diminishing odds for an immediate interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) and a weaker US Dollar (USD) benefit the British Pound (GBP), which contributes to the pair's intraday move up.

From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 200.00 mark make it prudent to wait for a move beyond the year-to-date high, around the 200.35 region touched earlier this week, before positioning for any further gains. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, the GBP/JPY cross might then climb to the 200.75 intermediate hurdle en route to the 201.00 round figure and the next relevant barrier near the 201.60 zone.

On the flip side, any corrective pullback now seems to find decent support near the 199.25 region ahead of the 199.00 mark. A further decline could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the 198.40 horizontal support. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken decisively, might prompt some technical selling and drag the GBP/JPY cross to sub-198.00 levels. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 197.35-197.30 intermediate support before spot prices drop to the 197.00 mark.

GBP/JPY daily chart

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product (MoM)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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