GBP/JPY drops back closer to 186.00 mark ahead of UK CPI

GBP/JPY comes under some renewed selling pressure amid broad-based JPY strength.
Hawkish BoJ expectations, along with the cautious market mood, underpin the JPY.
Traders now look to the UK CPI for short-term impetus ahead of the BoE and the BoJ.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/JPY cross struggles to capitalize on a two-day-old recovery from the vicinity of a one-month low retested earlier this week and meets with a fresh supply during the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices drop back closer to the 186.00 mark in the last hour amid the emergence of fresh buying around the Japanese Yen (JPY), though the downside seems limited ahead of the release of the UK consumer inflation figures.

The headline UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.3% in August following a 0.2% fall in the previous month and the yearly rate is seen holding steady at 2.2%. Meanwhile, the core CPI – excluding the volatile components of food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – is anticipated to climb to the 3.5% YoY rate from 3.3 in July. Against the backdrop of a slowdown in the UK wage growth and a flat GDP print for the second straight month in July, a softer CPI print will lift bets for more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) and undermine the British Pound (GBP).

Conversely, the market reaction to a stronger report is more likely to be short-lived amid the hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ)-led JPY strength. The recent comments by a slew of BoJ officials suggested that the Japanese central bank will hike interest rates again by the end of this year. This, along with the market nervousness ahead of this week's key central bank event risks, is seen benefiting the JPY's safe-haven status and exerting downward pressure on the GBP/JPY cross. This, in turn, favors bearish traders and supports prospects for a further intraday depreciating move.

Meanwhile, the market focus remains on the BoE decision on Thursday, which will be followed by the latest BoJ policy update on Friday. This will play a key role in influencing the GBP/JPY cross and help in determining the next leg of a directional move. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the 184.50 horizontal support before positioning for the resumption of the prior downtrend witnessed over the past two weeks or so.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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