GBP/JPY consolidates below the 20-day SMA following weak UK PMIs

GBP/JPY trades below 182.00 on Monday, seeing more than 0.40% losses.
UK PMI surveys fueled dovish bets on the BoE amid worries about the British economy's health.
Japan reported solid PMIs; still, markets bet on a dovish BoJ.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

Starting the week, the GBPJPY pair is trading lower near 181.35, though it has maintained relatively stable levels since mid-June. On the one hand, Japan reported solid PMIs in July, while the British ones came in weak sparkling dovish bets on the Bank of England, which decreased local yields, applying selling pressure on the GBP.

The British PMI monthly Composite Reports from July on Manufacturing and Services, released by S&P Global, all came lower than expected and sparked worries about the UK’s economic health. The manufacturing index slid to 45, while the Services and Global Composite fell to 52.4 and 51.5. As a reaction, the Bank of England’s (BoE) tightening expectations have fallen, with the odds of a 50 basis point (bps) decreasing to around 35% according to the World Interest Rate (WIRP) tool. Looking forward, 25 bps hikes are priced in for September and November, but the odds of a final hike in February 2024 slid to 35%.

Due to dovish bets on the BoE, British yields are falling. The 2-year yield fell nearly 1% to 4.88% while the 5 and 10-year rates to 4.31% and 4.22%, respectively, with similar declines of nearly 1%.

On the other hand, the Jibun Bank Services PMI released by Markit Economics remained steady at 52.1, while the Manufacturing Index fell slightly to 49.4. That said, markets are getting mixed signals ahead of Friday's Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that a dovish interest rate policy should be maintained, while Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, stated that inflation surpassing expectations should make the bank consider a policy pivot. Still, the consensus is that the BoJ will steady its dovish stance.

GBP/JPY levels to watch

The daily chart shows strong bearish momentum for the short term. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in positive territory, with a sharp negative slope approaching the midline. Meanwhile, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) prints soft red bars.

Resistance levels: 182.05 (20-day Simple Moving Average), 183.00, 184.00.
Support levels: 180.00. 179.50, 179.00.

GBP/JPY daily chart

GBP/JPY

Overview
Today last price	181.38
Today Daily Change	-0.87
Today Daily Change %	-0.48
Today daily open	182.25

Trends
Daily SMA20	182.17
Daily SMA50	178.03
Daily SMA100	171.65
Daily SMA200	167.62

Levels
Previous Daily High	182.53
Previous Daily Low	179.92
Previous Weekly High	182.53
Previous Weekly Low	179.74
Previous Monthly High	183.88
Previous Monthly Low	172.67
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	181.53
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	180.92
Daily Pivot Point S1	180.6
Daily Pivot Point S2	178.95
Daily Pivot Point S3	177.99
Daily Pivot Point R1	183.22
Daily Pivot Point R2	184.18
Daily Pivot Point R3	185.83

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

GBP/USD drops to multi-month troughs near 1.3140

GBP/USD adds to Tuesday’s pullback and recedes to the lowest level since November 2025 near 1.3140. A firmer Greenback and continued political turmoil in the UK are keeping Cable under persistent pressure, with little sign of a meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD bounces off YTD lows around 1.1320

EUR/USD extends its decline on Wednesday, falling to fresh yearly lows near 1.1320. The pair remains on the defensive as the US Dollar continues to draw support from hawkish Fed expectations and uncertainty over the outcome of US-Iran peace negotiations.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,000

Gold retreats further and breaches below the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce for the first time since November 2025 on Wednesday. Higher-for-longer Fed expectations and a broadly firmer US Dollar continue to weigh on the precious metal, while uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement has done little to revive demand for the safe haven space.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP trade under pressure as September Fed rate-hike odds increase

Bitcoin is trading between $62,000 and $63,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by headwinds stemming from macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

5.90% to 5.45%: Why the Pound ignored the bond market’s relief rally

Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, and the Pound barely moved. That near-silence is the tell. Sterling's real driver these past four months has not been the prime minister, nor the left-leaning frontrunner lining up to replace him, but the long end of the gilt curve, which answers to a force no British politician controls.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.