GBP/AUD rose to fresh 33-month high on weaker than expected Australian retail sales growth

GBP/AUD is trading near 1.8740 after AU retail sales missed forecast on early Thursday.
The pair rose to the 33-month high as latest pessimism surrounding Aussie weigh highly on the AUD.
Friday’s Chinese trade balance data is important for the pair with Brexit and US-China trade developments likely offering intermediate moves.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

GBP/AUD is taking bids around 1.8740 during early Thursday. The pair rose to a fresh 33-month high near 1.8775 after January Australian retail sales missed 0.3% forecast with a +0.1% growth figure. With little economic data on hand to follow, investors may now observe developments concerning Brexit and the US-China trade ahead of Friday’s trade balance figures from China.

Monthly results of Aussie retail sales and trade balance flashed mixed signals for the AUD traders on Thursday. While the retail sales lagged behind consensus, trade balance registered 4,595 million figure compared to 3,000M expected and 3.681M prior during January month. Further, imports grew 3.0% from -6.0% earlier contraction while exports increased 5.0% against -2.0% previous decline.

In spite of witnessing not so dovish numbers, the Australian Dollar (AUD) continued it's across the board downturn. The likely reason being the latest speculations about a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that pushed traders to concentrate more on a retail sales miss than improved trade numbers.

While the British Pound (GBP) is rising against the AUD, it has its own problems in the form of Brexit. Latest developments say that the EU-UK leaders’ meeting in Brussels summed up without any progress as both the sides continue to jostle around Irish backstop.

There prevails a lack of data stream during Thursday that may highlight news for Brexit and the US-China trade talks as important catalysts. On early Friday, China will release its February month trade balance figures with forecasts favoring $26.38B against $39.16B prior. The imports are likely to mark -1.4% figure compared to -1.5% prior and the exports could weaken to -4.8% from +9.1% earlier. Being the largest consumer of Australia, details from China are crucial to determining near-term AUD moves.

GBP/AUD Technical Analysis

Should the pair manage to stay well beyond 1.8720-25, it can aim for 1.9000 round-figure but 1.9020-30 may confine the upside then after.

In a case when prices slide under 1.8720, 1.8640 and 1.8520 might please sellers.

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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