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FX Today: USD/JPY ignores improved risk-sentiment, German data – Up next

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today in Asia cheered improved risk sentiment on the first trading of this week, with the Asian markets having bounced higher amid increased expectations of the US-China trade talks. The Antipodeans also benefited from the risk-on action in the Asian equities while the USD/JPY pair turned lower in tandem with the US equity futures and US dollar, as the bulls remain unfazed by risk-on. Both the Euro and the pound remained on the front foot amid a broadly weaker greenback.

Among the commodities, gold futures on Comex traded firmer above 1290 level amid mixed Treasury yields while both crude benchmarks rallied nearly 1.50% on upbeat broader market sentiment.

Main Topics in Asia

Chinese media: PBOC set for another RRR cut soon

Goldman Sachs cuts 2019 oil price forecast

Gold: bid early on USD weakness

USD/CNH: value of put options hits highest since May 2017

China approved new rail projects worth more than $125bn in December - FT

UK PM Theresa May planning further postponing final Brexit deal vote – The Independent

Japan's Abe: Need to strengthen the economy this year

Asian stocks bouncing higher on improving sentiment, Nikkei climbing into ¥20,100.00

Key Focus Ahead

Monday’s EUR calendar kicks-off with critical Germany’s factory orders and retail sales data that will drop in at 0700 GMT. Later on, at 0930 GMT, markets will watch out for the Eurozone Sentix investors’ confidence numbers, especially after December’s -0.3 reading disappointed markets big time. Soon after, the Eurozone retail sales report will be published at 1000 GMT, offering some fresh impetus to the EUR, GBP traders, as the UK docket remains absolutely data-dry.

In the NA session, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI and factory orders data will be reported at 1500 GMT alongside the release of the Canadian Ivey PMI for Dec. The FOMC member Bostic’s speech at 1740 GMT will be also closely eyed after Friday’s dovish remarks from the Fed Chair Powell that knocked-off the US dollar across the board.

EUR/USD: trapped in a 300-pip range

The pair looks set to revisit the upper edge of the trading range, that is, 1.15. The bullish case would further strengthen if the German factory orders and retail sales data, due at 07:00 GMT, betters estimates.

GBP/USD bullish from 1.2750 as parliamentary Brexit vote looms

Monday delivers little economic data for Sterling or US Dollar traders, leaving Pound bidders to grapple with Brexit headlines as they continue to leak out of the UK.

Markets: Key economic releases for the week ahead - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank list down the key economic releases and events for the week ahead from across the globe and suggest that today we have German and Eurozone retail sales, the US ISM non-manufacturing survey, and the Canadian IVEY PMI.

Topped out? Value of gold calls has backed off from eight-month highs

Gold one-month 25 delta risk reversals (XAU1MRR) are currently trading at 1.7 in favor of calls, having hit an eight-month high of 2.2 on Dec. 27.

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Tuesday, Jan 01
24h	CNY New Year's Day
24h	EUR New Year's Day
24h	EUR New Year's Eve
24h	GBP New Year's Day
24h	NZD New Year's Day
24h	JPY New Year's Day
24h	CHF New Year's Day
24h	CAD New Year's Day
24h	AUD New Year's Day
Wednesday, Jan 02
24h	NZD Day after New Year's Day
24h	JPY Bank Holiday
Monday, Jan 07
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)	-0.9%	5.0%
07:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	-0.3%
07:00	EUR Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)		-2.7%
07:00	EUR Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)	-0.5%	0.3%
08:00	CHF Foreign Currency Reserves		749B
09:30	EUR Sentix Investor Confidence		-0.3
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		1.7%
15:00	USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	59.7	60.7
15:00	USD Factory Orders (MoM)	0.7%	-2.1%
15:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a		57.2
15:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index		57.3
16:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction		2.415%
16:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction		2.48%
17:40	USD FOMC Member Bostic speech
Tuesday, Jan 08
00:30	AUD ANZ Job Advertisements		-0.3%
00:30	AUD Trade Balance	3,200M	2,316M
00:30	AUD Imports		3%
00:30	AUD Exports		1%
05:00	JPY Consumer Confidence Index		42.9
06:45	CHF Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM)	2.4%	2.4%
07:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)	0.4%	-0.5%
07:00	EUR Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)		1.8%
07:30	CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)		0.8%
08:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY)	1.0%	0.3%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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