FX Today: Australian jobs report and UK GDP data come to the fore

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

The US Dollar (USD) added to its weekly correction, briefly slipping back to multi-day lows on the back of the renewed offered stance, a better tone in the risk complex and persistent bets on rate cuts by the Fed in the latter part of the year.

Here’s what to watch on Thursday, October 16:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded on the back foot for the second straight day on Wednesday, falling to multi-day troughs near 98.70 amid further retracement in US Treasury yields. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is due, seconded by the NAHB Housing Market Index and the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil stockpiles. In addition, the Fed’s Barkin, Barr, Miran, Waller and Bowman are all due to speak.

EUR/USD picked up pace and regained the 1.1650 region amid further weakness hurting the Greenback. The Balance of Trade results in the broader Euroland are next on tap, alongside speeches by the ECB’s Donnery, Lane and Lagarde.

GBP/USD rose to weekly highs past 1.3400, leaving behind two daily pullbacks in a row. UK GDP figures take centre stage along with Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Balance of Trade, Construction Output, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker.

USD/JPY extended its bearish leg to six-day lows in the sub-151.00 region, adding to Tuesday’s retracement. Machinery Orders and the Tertiary Industry Index are due ahead of the speech by the BoJ’s Tamura.

AUD/USD kept its weekly erratic performance, reversing Tuesday’s pullback and rebounding markedly to the 0.6520 zone. The labour market report will grab all the attention in Oz.

Prices of the american WTI added to Tuesday’s drop, approaching once again the $58.00 mark per barrel as traders continued to assess the expected surplus by the IEA in 2026 and the renewed US-China trade effervescence.

Gold prices clinched an all-time high near the $4,220 mark per troy ounce, always on the back of steady bets on rate cuts by the Fed, trade tensions and the softer US Dollar. Silver prices faded Tuesday’s downtick, briefly surpassing the key $53.00 mark per ounce.

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Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

GBP/USD surrenders some gains, back to 1.3420

GBP/USD holds on to moderate gains above 1.3400 the figure on Friday. Optimism surrounding the UK government’s leadership transition and expectations of further BoE tightening support the British Pound, while easing tensions in the Middle East and fading Fed rate-hike expectations weigh on the US Dollar.

EUR/USD turns positive, targets 1.1450

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances toward the 1.1440 region on Friday, up modestly for the day. With no major economic data due, lingering uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict keeps investors cautious, limiting the pair's upside.

Gold remains offered, still below $4,100

Gold struggles to extend Thursday’s rebound and navigates below the $4,100 mark per troy ounce on Friday. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict limits the precious metal’s upside, which is also under pressure amid rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Week ahead – US CPI and Warsh testimony to take centre stage, BoC eyed too

US inflation report and Warsh testimony to headline the week. Dollar to dominate amid slew of other US data and Mideast tensions. Amid fresh Iran escalation, China GDP to shed light on Q2 impact. Bank of Canada not expected to follow RBNZ with rate hike.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.

Five sessions, one round trip: Why the whipsaw is exactly what Warsh ordered

Markets opened July with a December hike as the base case and spent five trading sessions unlearning and relearning it. A 57K payrolls print bled the tightening bets out of the strip; a re-shut Strait of Hormuz is pushing them back in. Wednesday's minutes from the June FOMC meeting landed mid-round-trip, describing a world that had already stopped existing.