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Forex Today: Yen sold-off into risk-on, UK and EZ CPI – Up next

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

A better sentiment towards the risk assets was witnessed in the Asian session this Wednesday, with the safe-havens such as the Yen, the CHF and gold sold-off across the board. The USD/JPY pair rebounded sharply towards 107.50 levels, tracking the rally in the Nikkei 225 index and firmer Treasury yields.

Meanwhile, the Antipodeans traded better offered in absence of the first-tier macro news from both the OZ economies. However, the downside was capped by positive oil prices and persisting risk-on market profile. Both, the EUR and GBP remained mildly bid ahead of the inflation data releases.

Main topics in Asia

Atlanta Fed's Bostic: US trade policy is confusing businesses

Head of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, Raphael Bostic, is speaking at a conference hosted by Bloomberg Tax in Atlanta.

Trump: US in "extremely high-level" talks with N.Korea - Reuters

As reported by Reuters, US President Donald Trump has announced that the US and North Korea have been talking directly, and are set to prepare a meeting between the two countries' leaders.

Japanese exports expand for 16th straight month

Japanese exports rose 2.1 percent in March - its 16th straight monthly rise, although the actual reading was well below the estimated figure of 4.7 percent.

CIA Director Pompeo met with North Korea's Kim Jong Un weeks ago - Washington Post

According to reporting by the Washington Post, two anonymous sources confirmed that Mike Pompeo, Director of the CIA, made a secret trip to North Korea over Easter weekend to establish a dialogue with the hermit country's leader.

IMF keeps global growth forecast unchanged, warns world growth will slow

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its forecasts for global growth this year but warned that the growth may continue to face a slowdown.

Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite all higher as equities continue Bull Run

The Nikkei has climbed over last month's high of 22,101.00 to trade into February's declines, and the Japanese index is up around 1.2 percent in early trading …

Hong Kong three-month HIBOR hits highest level this year - Reuters

The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) or the interbank borrowing costs has jumped to 1.32071 - its highest level this year.

Key Focus ahead

Heading into Europe, all eyes remain on the UK annualized CPI reading due to be reported at 0830 GMT, which is expected to show that consumer prices remained flat at 2.7 percent in the month of March. Also, the UK PPI figures will be released alongside. Markets also look forward to the Eurozone final CPI estimate and construction output for a fresh momentum on the EUR trades.

The speeches by FOMC officials are expected to dominate the NA session amid a data-quiet US docket while the main event risk remains the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy decision due to be announced at 1400 GMT, followed by Governor Poloz’s’ press conference at 1515 GMT. The Loonie will also take cues from the EIA weekly crude inventory report.

In the overnight trades, New Zealand’s inflation report will offer fresh trading impetus to the NZ traders.

EUR/USD fighting to stay upright, 1.24 looking distant ahead of EU CPI

The Euro heads into Wednesday's Consumer Price Index reading on a cautious note thanks to continued geopolitical tensions; final CPI figures for the wider Eurozone area drop today at 09:00 GMT …

GBP/USD: Cautiously bullish, eyes UK CPI

The outlook remains bullish as the momentum studies retain the bullish bias: 5, 10 and 21-day MAs trend north, indicating bullish setup. Moreover, reduced Brexit fears and May rate hike optimism are seen keeping GBP better bid in the short-run.

UK CPI to remain unchanged at 2.7 percent in March – Nomura

In the view of the analysts at Nomura, the UK headline inflation numbers are expected to remain flat in March, courtesy of a drop in fuel prices.

BOC Preview: No change expected in the April statement - Citi

Analysts at Citigroup offer a brief preview on what to expect from today Bank of Canada’s (BOC) monetary policy announcement due at 1400 GMT.

Is market volatility down to stay or just in a temporary lull?

As equity markets continued to rally sharply on Tuesday on the back of a strong start to corporate earnings season and decreased concerns over geopolitical risk, market fear as measured by the VIX volatility index continued to march lower.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Tuesday, Apr 17
17:10	USD Fed's Evans Speech
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			1.758M
21:40	USD FOMC Member Bostic speech
23:50	JPY Exports (YoY)	2.1%	4.7%	1.8%
23:50	JPY Imports (YoY)	-0.6%	5.4%	16.6% Revised from 16.5%
23:50	JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total	¥797.3B	¥498.3B	¥2.6B Revised from ¥3.4B
23:50	JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance	¥119.2B	¥-98.5B	¥-201.5B
Wednesday, Apr 18
24h	EUR Eurogroup meeting
00:30	AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM)	-0.2%		0.4% Revised from 0.3%
01:30	CNY House Price Index	4.9%		5.2%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			1.9%
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			0.3%
07:00	CZK Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.4%
07:00	CZK Producer Price Index (YoY)			-0.3%
07:00	EUR EU Norm Inflation (YoY)			2.2%
07:00	EUR EU Norm Inflation (MoM)			0.2%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY)			5.3%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY)			9.6%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM)			-2.8%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM)			-4.5%
08:00	PLN Corporate Sector Wages		6.5%	6.8%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.8%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			4%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (YoY)		3.6%	3.6%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (MoM)		0.0%	0.8%
08:30	GBP DCLG House Price Index (YoY)		5.0%	4.9%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a		0.2%	0.0%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a		2.3%	2.6%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a		0.2%	0.2%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a		4.1%	3.4%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a		2.2%	2.4%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a		0.3%	-1.1%
08:30	GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.5%	2.4%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.7%	2.7%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	0.4%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		1.0%	0.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		1%	1%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)		1.4%	0.4%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.4%	1.4%
09:00	EUR Construction Output w.d.a (YoY)		2.3%	3.7%
09:00	EUR Construction Output s.a (MoM)		0.2%	-2.2%
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			0.6%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-1.9%
11:00	ZAR Retail Sales (YoY)			3.1%
11:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€-0.552B
12:30	USD Fed's William Dudley speech
13:00	RUB Unemployment Rate			5%
13:00	RUB Producer Price Index (YoY)			5.7%
13:00	RUB Producer Price Index (MoM)			1%
14:00	CAD Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
14:00	CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision		1.25%	1.25%
14:00	CAD BoC Rate Statement
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		-1.900M	3.306M
15:15	CAD BoC Press Conference
18:00	USD Fed's Beige Book
19:15	USD Fed's William Dudley speech
20:15	USD Fed's Quarles speech
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth			0.4%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (YoY)			1.3%
22:45	NZD Consumer Price Index (QoQ)		0.5%	0.1%
22:45	NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.1%	1.6%
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥332.9B
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥-609.4B
Thursday, Apr 19
24h	ISK First Day of Summer
24h	EUR EcoFin Meeting
00:30	AUD National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ)			6
01:30	AUD Employment Change s.a.		31.5K	17.5K
01:30	AUD Fulltime employment			64.9K
01:30	AUD Part-time employment			-47.4K
01:30	AUD Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.4%	5.6%
01:30	AUD Participation Rate		65.6%	65.7%
04:30	JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)			-0.6%
05:30	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a (3M)			4.1%
08:00	PLN Industrial Output (YoY)			7.4%
08:00	PLN Producer Price Index (YoY)			-0.2%
08:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a			€12.8B
08:00	EUR Current Account s.a			€37.6B
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)		0.2%	0.8%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)		1.1%	1.5%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)		-1.7%	0.6%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)		2.0%	1.1%
n/a	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction			1.148%
n/a	EUR 3-y Bond Auction			-0.232%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			0.294%
n/a	GBP 10-y Bond Auction			1.58%
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			0.74%
12:00	USD FOMC Member Brainard Speech
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.835M	1.871M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		235K	233K
12:30	USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey		20.9	22.3
12:30	CAD ADP Employment Change			32.7K
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$458.9B
13:10	USD Fed's Quarles speech
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change		-44B	-19B
16:30	GBP MPC Member Cunliffe Speech
22:45	USD FOMC Member Mester speech
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY)
23:30	JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)		0.9%	1.0%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.8%	1.5%
Friday, Apr 20
24h	EUR IMF Meeting
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			1.8%
07:00	DKK Consumer Confidence			8.5
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			2.2%
07:00	EUR Import Prices (YoY)			1.9%
07:00	EUR Export Prices (YoY)			2.3%
08:00	EUR Current Account (YoY)			€-0.586B
08:00	HUF Gross Wages (YoY)			13.8%
09:30	GBP MPC Member Saunders Speech
11:30	EUR German Buba President Weidmann speech
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$424.86B
12:00	BRL Mid-month Inflation			0.1%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.0%	0.9%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.1%	0.3%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.6%
12:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)		1.5%	1.5%
12:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)		0.2%	0.7%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)			0.2%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.3%	2.2%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate s.a			3.3%
13:00	MXN Jobless Rate			3.2%
13:40	USD Fed's Evans Speech
14:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		0.0	0.1
15:00	COP Trade Balance			$-518.4M
15:15	USD FOMC Member Williams speech
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			815
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			707.1K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$155.4K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$-10.7K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£43K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥2.8K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€147.5K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$-2.8K
Saturday, Apr 21
24h	BRL Tiradentes Day
24h	EUR IMF Meeting

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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The Iran war didn't break the US economy, but what happens next?

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