Forex Today: Yen slips on risk-recovery, a dud BoJ, UK data, US NFP - Key

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Asia today witnessed a recovery in risk sentiment, as attention shifted from the US tariffs news to the North Korean announcement, as the North’s leader Kim Jong-Un offers to suspend the nuclear missile program. The safe-haven Yen quickly lost its shine amid an improvement in risk condition, pushing USD/JPY to test the 107 handle. However, the sellers lurked at the last and drove the rates back towards the 106.60 region, with little reaction seen on the BoJ’s steady policy decision.

Both the Antipodeans looked to regain the bids following the release of upbeat Chinese CPI figures, but further upside appeared capped ahead of the US NFP release. Among the other related markets, the Asian equities traded +0.20% to 0.40% higher while oil prices also defended minor bids. Gold prices on Comex traded below $ 1320 mark, down -0.24% so far.

Main topics in Asia

BoC's Lane: link between uncertainty and current policies - Reuters

North Korea's Kim Jong-un offers to suspend nuclear missile program, invites Trump to meet

China Commerce Ministry "resolutely opposes" latest US trade tariffs

Japan trade minister Seko - Retaliatory actions vs US tariffs won't have any benefit

Fed's George sees 'upside' risks, wants further rate hikes

PBOC’s Yi: Monetary policy decided by the domestic situation

BoJ keeps the steady course

Key Focus ahead

After an eventful Asian session, the fx traders are poised for a data-busy session ahead, with a flurry of macro news from the UK docket due on the cards. The UK sees the releases of the industrial and manufacturing production data alongside the good trade balance and construction output numbers. Meanwhile, the German trade and industrial figures will be eyed ahead of the EU open.

Moving on, the NA session offers the Canadian and US employment figures, with the US wage growth numbers eagerly awaited for the US interest rates outlook this year. The second tier US wholesale inventories data and rigs count data will wrap up the central banks’ events dominated busy week.

EUR/USD - yield differential hits new high & puts gain value ahead of US wage growth data

An above-forecast reading would boost the odds of a faster Fed tightening and could weigh over EUR/USD.

GBP/USD heads into NFP Friday trying to catch a bid from 1.38

Plenty of volatility is still to be expected for Friday's session as the USD undergoes its once-a-month Non-Farm Payrolls ritual.

US: Expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 210k in Feb – Goldman Sachs

Analysts at Goldman Sachs offer a brief preview of today’s key US labor market report due to be reported at 1330 GMT.

Will Non-Farm Payrolls Drive EUR/USD to 1.22?

The U.S. dollar is trading higher ahead of the release and if the labor data is strong enough, it could take EUR/USD towards 1.22 and USD/JPY to 107.00.

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Mar 05
24h	AUD Labour Day
Friday, Mar 09
06:00	JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)		48.8%
06:30	JPY BoJ Press Conference
07:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)	0.5%	-0.6%
07:00	EUR Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)		6.5%
07:00	EUR Exports (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%
07:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.	€21.1B	€21.4B
07:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a.		€27.8B
07:00	EUR Imports (MoM)	0.0%	1.4%
09:30	GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations		2.9%
09:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)	0.2%	0.3%
09:30	GBP Industrial Production (MoM)	1.5%	-1.3%
09:30	GBP Industrial Production (YoY)	1.8%	0.0%
09:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY)	2.8%	1.4%
09:30	GBP Total Trade Balance		£-4.896B
09:30	GBP Goods Trade Balance	£-12.000B	£-13.576B
09:30	GBP Trade Balance; non-EU	£-4.40B	£-5.18B
13:00	GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)	0.3%	0.5%
13:30	USD Nonfarm Payrolls	200K	200K
13:30	USD Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.3
13:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	2.8%	2.9%
13:30	USD Unemployment Rate	4.0%	4.1%
13:30	USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.3%
13:30	USD Labor Force Participation Rate	62.5%	62.7%
13:30	EUR Employment Change (YoY)		1.7%
13:30	CAD Capacity Utilization	85.2%	85.0%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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