Forex Today: Yen extends sell-off into Asia, UK inflation, FOMC decision in focus

Forex today in Asia witnessed thin trading ranges, as investors remained nervous heading into the key central banking events, with the FOMC meeting to hog the limelight ahead of the ECB and BoJ policy announcements. The US dollar clung to the overnight gains across its main competitors, helping drive the USD/JPY pair to fresh three-week tops alongside the rally in Treasury yields. The Antipodeans staged minor-recoveries, despite weaker oil prices and retreat in the Asian stocks. The Aussie bounced-off lows near 0.7550 reached after dovish remarks by the RBA Governor Lowe.

Main topics in Asia

Trump: No war games as long as 'we're negotiating in good faith' with N. Korea - Fox News

Livesquawk reports excerpts from the US President Trump’s interview with Fox News, with the key headlines found below.

US Republicans urge Trump to show resolve, caution - Reuters

As reported by Reuters, US leading Republicans are stressing the need for caution and steeled resolve in future talks.

GBP/JPY flirts with trendline hurdle ahead of UK CPI release

The GBP/JPY pair has been solidly bid in the last 24 hours, but a convincing move above the falling trendline (from April 18 low and April 26 low) has remained elusive.

Japan’s Onodera: Japan will continue with plans to bolster ballistic missile defenses

Japanese Defence Minister Onodera was on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, noting Japan is considering plans to bolster defense against North Korean missile aggression. 

RBA’s Lowe: Likely next move in rates is up not down, but not in near term

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Phillip Lowe is on the wires now, via Reuters, making a scheduled speech titled "Productivity, Wages, and Prosperity" at an Australian Industry Group event, in Melbourne. 

AUD/USD hit 12-day low on dovish RBA Lowe's comments

The AUD/USD pair hit a 12-day low of 0.7556 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Lowe said any increase in the country's official cash rates was still "some time away".

RBA’s Lowe: RBA certainly noting tightening of credit conditions

More comments flowing in from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe, via Reuters, as he continues to speak at an Australian Industry Group event, in Melbourne. 

Russia plans to propose that OPEC, non-OPEC return to Oct 2016 oil output levels - Bloomberg

Bloomberg quotes a person familiar with the Russian thinking, as saying that Russia is mulling proposing that the OPEC and non-OPEC producers return oil output to October 2016 levels.

Trump could slap China with tariffs by Friday - Politico

According to reporting by Politico, unnamed sources are saying that US President Donald Trump could impose a set of trade tariffs on China as soon as Friday, or sometime next week.

Key Focus ahead

We have a busy macro calendar today, with a plenty of event risks that are likely to keep the investors on the edge. The EUR docket kicks-off with the Swiss industrial production and PPI releases followed by the key UK CPI report and Eurozone industrial production figures among other minority reports.

Later today, markets brace for the US producers’ price index (PPI) and EIA crude stockpiles data ahead of the highly-influential FOMC decision.

Markets have widely priced-in a 25bps hike in the Fed funds rate. However, it is the language in the Fed’s statement that is likely to drive the dollar trades in the coming weeks. Also, the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) and Chairman Powell’s press conference will be eagerly eyed for Fed’s future path of monetary policy.

EUR/USD: Focus on Fed's forward guidance

The EUR/USD traded in a sideways manner in Asia around the 200-hour moving average (MA) of 1.1746 as investors turned cautious ahead of the all-important FOMC rate decision.

GBP/USD stumbles back from 1.34 once again as bullish momentum evaporates

Wednesday is a packed day for the Sterling, with a raft of data all due at 08:30 GMT, but traders' focus will be on the Consumer Price Index figures, with the year-on-year data for May expected to come in at 2.5%, a mild uptick from the previous reading of 2.4%.

Fed Hike Priced In But Market to Focus on Powell’s Words

A 25 basis points rate hike has been priced in for months with the CME FedWatch showing a 96.3 percent probability of a lift on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will face the financial press at 2:30 pm EDT. 

Australian Employment Preview: Moderate gain coming in May

Analysts at ANZ and Westpac are expecting a moderation in Australian employment numbers for the month of May when they will be released on Thursday at 0130 GMT. 

Bank of Japan to maintain status-quo on Friday - Nomura

In the view of analysts at Nomura, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to make no changes to its monetary policy settings, when it concludes its two-day June monetary policy meeting this Friday.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Tuesday, Jun 12
24h
 
 
15:30
1.79%
 
1.78%
17:00
3.10%
 
3.13%
18:00
$-147B
$-144B
$214B
20:30
0.833M
 
-2.028M
22:45
0.0%
 
0.1%
Wednesday, Jun 13
24h
 
 
00:30
0.3%
 
-0.6%
02:00
 
 
02:30
2%
 
2%
07:00
 
5.65%
7.60%
07:00
 
2.1%
2.1%
07:00
 
0.9%
0.8%
07:00
 
0.9%
0.8%
07:00
 
2.0%
1.1%
07:15
 
 
19.6%
07:15
 
 
8.7%
07:15
 
0.3%
0.4%
07:15
 
3.2%
2.7%
08:00
 
6.00B
-5.55B
08:30
 
3.4%
3.4%
08:30
 
0.4%
0.5%
08:30
 
4.4%
4.2%
08:30
 
2.5%
2.4%
08:30
 
1.6%
0.4%
08:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
08:30
 
0.2%
0.1%
08:30
 
2.9%
2.7%
08:30
 
7.6%
5.3%
08:30
 
2.1%
2.1%
08:30
 
2.5%
2.4%
08:30
 
0.4%
0.4%
08:55
 
 
4.25%
09:00
 
2.8%
3.0%
09:00
 
-0.5%
0.5%
09:00
 
1.6%
1.6%
09:00
 
0.3%
0.3%
n/a
 
 
0.62%
11:00
 
 
4.1%
11:00
 
4.1%
4.8%
n/a
 
 
-44.1B
n/a
 
 
$9.4B
n/a
 
 
$-13.5B
12:00
 
0.6%
0.3%
12:00
 
€-243.5M
€-982.0M
n/a
 
 
0.6%
12:30
 
0.2%
0.2%
12:30
 
2.3%
2.3%
12:30
 
2.8%
2.6%
12:30
 
0.3%
0.1%
14:30
 
-2.744M
2.072M
n/a
 
 
$13.72B
18:00
 
 
18:00
 
 
18:00
 
 
18:00
 
2.00%
1.75%
18:30
 
 
22:00
 
2.5%
2.5%
23:01
 
-5%
-8%
23:50
 
 
¥-527.6B
23:50
 
 
¥-1,665.8B
Thursday, Jun 14
24h
 
 
01:00
 
 
3.7%
01:30
 
18.0K
22.6K
01:30
 
 
32.7K
01:30
 
 
-10K
01:30
 
5.5%
5.6%
01:30
 
65.6%
65.6%
02:00
 
9.6%
9.4%
02:00
 
6.9%
7.0%
02:00
 
7%
7%
02:00
 
 
0.1%
04:00
 
 
0.2%
04:30
 
3.1%
2.5%
04:30
 
0.3%
0.3%
04:30
 
0.3%
0.5%
06:00
 
2.2%
2.2%
06:00
 
0.5%
0.5%
06:00
 
2.2%
2.2%
06:00
 
0.6%
0.6%
06:00
 
 
0.8%
06:30
 
 
3.18%
06:45
 
0.4%
0.2%
06:45
 
0.4%
0.2%
06:45
 
2.3%
2.3%
07:00
 
 
0.6%
07:00
 
 
0.7%
07:00
 
 
3.3%
07:00
 
 
2.9%
07:30
 
 
1.7%
07:30
 
 
0.4%
08:30
 
2.5%
1.5%
08:30
 
0.3%
1.3%
08:30
 
2.4%
1.4%
08:30
 
0.5%
1.6%
09:00
 
 
21.2%
09:00
 
 
11:45
 
-0.4%
-0.4%
11:45
 
0%
0%
12:30
 
0.5%
0.3%
12:30
 
0.4%
0.3%
12:30
 
0.4%
0.4%
12:30
 
1.737M
1.741M
12:30
 
224K
222K
12:30
 
0.3%
0.6%
12:30
 
3.0%
3.3%
12:30
 
0.5%
0.3%
12:30
 
4.4%
3.8%
12:30
 
 
12:30
 
1.7%
2.4%
12:30
 
0%
0%
14:00
 
0.3%
0.0%
14:30
 
87B
92B
19:00
 
 
2.7%
22:30
 
 
58.9
23:00
 
 
3.8%
Friday, Jun 15
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
00:00
 
 
$6.7B
24h
 
 
01:30
 
 
4.7%
02:00
 
 
02:00
 
-0.1%
-0.1%
03:30
 
 
n/a
 
 
04:30
 
 
3.6%
06:00
 
 
1.4%
06:00
 
 
0.5%
06:00
 
 
19.4B
07:00
 
 
3.1%
07:00
 
 
€-0.1B
07:00
 
 
0.2%
07:00
 
 
1.9%
08:00
 
 
0.5%
08:00
 
 
0.8%
08:00
 
 
3.6%
08:00
 
 
2.6%
08:00
 
 
0.2%
08:00
 
 
0%
09:00
 
 
1.1%
09:00
 
 
0.4%
09:00
 
 
0.4%
09:00
 
1.1%
1.1%
09:00
 
 
-2.8B
09:00
 
€14.2B
€26.9B
09:00
 
€21.1B
€21.2B
09:00
 
1.9%
1.5%
09:00
 
0.5%
0.3%
09:00
 
1.1%
1.1%
09:00
 
1.9%
1.9%
09:00
 
0.3%
0.2%
09:45
 
 
10:30
 
 
7.25%
11:30
 
 
$412.23B
12:00
 
 
0.6%
12:00
 
 
12:30
 
19.75
20.10
12:30
 
0.2%
1.4%
12:30
 
 
$6.15B
12:30
 
 
$-1.9B
13:15
 
0.3%
0.7%
13:15
 
78.1%
78.0%
14:00
 
98.8
98.0
15:00
 
 
5.5%
15:00
 
 
-1.4%
16:00
 
 
17:00
 
 
862
19:00
 
 
3.9%
19:30
 
 
$162.1K
19:30
 
 
$111.4K
19:30
 
 
583.6K
19:30
 
 
£7.3K
19:30
 
 
¥-3.4K
19:30
 
 
€89.2K
19:30
 
 
$-20.2K
20:00
 
 
$61.8B
20:00
 
 
$-38.5B
Saturday, Jun 16
24h
 
 
24h
 
 

 

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