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Forex Today: Yen extends sell-off into Asia, UK inflation, FOMC decision in focus

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Forex today in Asia witnessed thin trading ranges, as investors remained nervous heading into the key central banking events, with the FOMC meeting to hog the limelight ahead of the ECB and BoJ policy announcements. The US dollar clung to the overnight gains across its main competitors, helping drive the USD/JPY pair to fresh three-week tops alongside the rally in Treasury yields. The Antipodeans staged minor-recoveries, despite weaker oil prices and retreat in the Asian stocks. The Aussie bounced-off lows near 0.7550 reached after dovish remarks by the RBA Governor Lowe.

Main topics in Asia

Trump: No war games as long as 'we're negotiating in good faith' with N. Korea - Fox News

Livesquawk reports excerpts from the US President Trump’s interview with Fox News, with the key headlines found below.

US Republicans urge Trump to show resolve, caution - Reuters

As reported by Reuters, US leading Republicans are stressing the need for caution and steeled resolve in future talks.

GBP/JPY flirts with trendline hurdle ahead of UK CPI release

The GBP/JPY pair has been solidly bid in the last 24 hours, but a convincing move above the falling trendline (from April 18 low and April 26 low) has remained elusive.

Japan’s Onodera: Japan will continue with plans to bolster ballistic missile defenses

Japanese Defence Minister Onodera was on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, noting Japan is considering plans to bolster defense against North Korean missile aggression.

RBA’s Lowe: Likely next move in rates is up not down, but not in near term

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Phillip Lowe is on the wires now, via Reuters, making a scheduled speech titled "Productivity, Wages, and Prosperity" at an Australian Industry Group event, in Melbourne.

AUD/USD hit 12-day low on dovish RBA Lowe's comments

The AUD/USD pair hit a 12-day low of 0.7556 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Lowe said any increase in the country's official cash rates was still "some time away".

RBA’s Lowe: RBA certainly noting tightening of credit conditions

More comments flowing in from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe, via Reuters, as he continues to speak at an Australian Industry Group event, in Melbourne.

Russia plans to propose that OPEC, non-OPEC return to Oct 2016 oil output levels - Bloomberg

Bloomberg quotes a person familiar with the Russian thinking, as saying that Russia is mulling proposing that the OPEC and non-OPEC producers return oil output to October 2016 levels.

Trump could slap China with tariffs by Friday - Politico

According to reporting by Politico, unnamed sources are saying that US President Donald Trump could impose a set of trade tariffs on China as soon as Friday, or sometime next week.

Key Focus ahead

We have a busy macro calendar today, with a plenty of event risks that are likely to keep the investors on the edge. The EUR docket kicks-off with the Swiss industrial production and PPI releases followed by the key UK CPI report and Eurozone industrial production figures among other minority reports.

Later today, markets brace for the US producers’ price index (PPI) and EIA crude stockpiles data ahead of the highly-influential FOMC decision.

Markets have widely priced-in a 25bps hike in the Fed funds rate. However, it is the language in the Fed’s statement that is likely to drive the dollar trades in the coming weeks. Also, the Statement of Economic Projections (SEP) and Chairman Powell’s press conference will be eagerly eyed for Fed’s future path of monetary policy.

EUR/USD: Focus on Fed's forward guidance

The EUR/USD traded in a sideways manner in Asia around the 200-hour moving average (MA) of 1.1746 as investors turned cautious ahead of the all-important FOMC rate decision.

GBP/USD stumbles back from 1.34 once again as bullish momentum evaporates

Wednesday is a packed day for the Sterling, with a raft of data all due at 08:30 GMT, but traders' focus will be on the Consumer Price Index figures, with the year-on-year data for May expected to come in at 2.5%, a mild uptick from the previous reading of 2.4%.

Fed Hike Priced In But Market to Focus on Powell’s Words

A 25 basis points rate hike has been priced in for months with the CME FedWatch showing a 96.3 percent probability of a lift on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will face the financial press at 2:30 pm EDT.

Australian Employment Preview: Moderate gain coming in May

Analysts at ANZ and Westpac are expecting a moderation in Australian employment numbers for the month of May when they will be released on Thursday at 0130 GMT.

Bank of Japan to maintain status-quo on Friday - Nomura

In the view of analysts at Nomura, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to make no changes to its monetary policy settings, when it concludes its two-day June monetary policy meeting this Friday.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Tuesday, Jun 12
24h	RUB National Day
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction	1.79%		1.78%
17:00	USD 30-Year Bond Auction	3.10%		3.13%
18:00	USD Monthly Budget Statement	$-147B	$-144B	$214B
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	0.833M		-2.028M
22:45	NZD Food Price Index (MoM)	0.0%		0.1%
Wednesday, Jun 13
24h	EUR Eurogroup meeting
00:30	AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence	0.3%		-0.6%
02:00	AUD RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speech
02:30	SGD Unemployment rate	2%		2%
07:00	TRY Industrial Production (YoY)		5.65%	7.60%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)		2.1%	2.1%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.9%	0.8%
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)		0.9%	0.8%
07:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.0%	1.1%
07:15	CHF Industrial Production (YoY)			19.6%
07:15	CHF Industrial Production (QoQ)			8.7%
07:15	CHF Producer and Import Prices (MoM)		0.3%	0.4%
07:15	CHF Producer and Import Prices (YoY)		3.2%	2.7%
08:00	CZK Current Account (MoM)		6.00B	-5.55B
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (YoY)		3.4%	3.4%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.5%
08:30	GBP DCLG House Price Index (YoY)		4.4%	4.2%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a		2.5%	2.4%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a		1.6%	0.4%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a		0.3%	0.3%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a		0.2%	0.1%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a		2.9%	2.7%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a		7.6%	5.3%
08:30	GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.1%	2.1%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.5%	2.4%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.4%
08:55	ISK CBI Interest Rate Decision			4.25%
09:00	EUR Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)		2.8%	3.0%
09:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)		-0.5%	0.5%
09:00	EUR Employment Change (YoY)		1.6%	1.6%
09:00	EUR Employment Change (QoQ)		0.3%	0.3%
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			0.62%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			4.1%
11:00	ZAR Retail Sales (YoY)		4.1%	4.8%
n/a	INR Trade Deficit - RBI			-44.1B
n/a	INR Balance Payment $			$9.4B
n/a	INR Current Account Balance $			$-13.5B
12:00	BRL Retail Sales (MoM)		0.6%	0.3%
12:00	PLN Current Account		€-243.5M	€-982.0M
n/a	RUB Budget Fulfilment			0.6%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)		2.3%	2.3%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index (YoY)		2.8%	2.6%
12:30	USD Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	0.1%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change		-2.744M	2.072M
n/a	INR Trade Deficit Government			$13.72B
18:00	USD FOMC Economic Projections
18:00	USD Fed's Powell Speech
18:00	USD Fed's Monetary Policy Statement
18:00	USD Fed Interest Rate Decision		2.00%	1.75%
18:30	USD FOMC Press conference
22:00	CLP BCCH Interest Rate		2.5%	2.5%
23:01	GBP RICS Housing Price Balance		-5%	-8%
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥-527.6B
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥-1,665.8B
Thursday, Jun 14
24h	EUR EcoFin Meeting
01:00	AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation			3.7%
01:30	AUD Employment Change s.a.		18.0K	22.6K
01:30	AUD Fulltime employment			32.7K
01:30	AUD Part-time employment			-10K
01:30	AUD Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.5%	5.6%
01:30	AUD Participation Rate		65.6%	65.6%
02:00	CNY Retail Sales (YoY)		9.6%	9.4%
02:00	CNY Industrial Production (YoY)		6.9%	7.0%
02:00	CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY)		7%	7%
02:00	CNY FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY)			0.1%
04:00	JPY Vehicle Production (YoY)			0.2%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)		3.1%	2.5%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)		0.3%	0.3%
04:30	JPY Capacity Utilization		0.3%	0.5%
06:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.2%	2.2%
06:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.5%	0.5%
06:00	EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)		2.2%	2.2%
06:00	EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)		0.6%	0.6%
06:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.8%
06:30	INR WPI Inflation			3.18%
06:45	EUR Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM)		0.4%	0.2%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM)		0.4%	0.2%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)		2.3%	2.3%
07:00	EUR Headline Inflation (MoM)			0.6%
07:00	EUR Core Inflation (MoM)			0.7%
07:00	EUR Core Inflation (YoY)			3.3%
07:00	EUR Headline Inflation (YoY)			2.9%
07:30	SEK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.7%
07:30	SEK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)		2.5%	1.5%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)		0.3%	1.3%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)		2.4%	1.4%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)		0.5%	1.6%
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate (QoQ)			21.2%
09:00	CHF SNB press conference
11:45	EUR ECB Deposit Rate Decision		-0.4%	-0.4%
11:45	EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision		0%	0%
12:30	USD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.5%	0.3%
12:30	USD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.4%	0.3%
12:30	USD Retail Sales control group		0.4%	0.4%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.737M	1.741M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		224K	222K
12:30	USD Export Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	0.6%
12:30	USD Import Price Index (YoY)		3.0%	3.3%
12:30	USD Import Price Index (MoM)		0.5%	0.3%
12:30	USD Export Price Index (YoY)		4.4%	3.8%
12:30	EUR ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
12:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY)		1.7%	2.4%
12:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM)		0%	0%
14:00	USD Business Inventories		0.3%	0.0%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change		87B	92B
19:00	ARS Consumer Price Index (MoM)			2.7%
22:30	NZD Business NZ PMI			58.9
23:00	KRW Unemployment Rate			3.8%
Friday, Jun 15
24h	TRY Ramazan Feast
24h	IDR Hari Raya Idul Fitri
00:00	KRW Trade Balance			$6.7B
24h	SGD Hari Raya Puasa
01:30	CNY House Price Index			4.7%
02:00	JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
02:00	JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision		-0.1%	-0.1%
03:30	AUD RBA Assistant Governor Ellis Speech
n/a	JPY BoJ Press Conference
04:30	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			3.6%
06:00	EUR Wholesale Price Index (YoY)			1.4%
06:00	EUR Wholesale Price Index (MoM)			0.5%
06:00	NOK Trade Balance			19.4B
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			3.1%
07:00	EUR Current Account			€-0.1B
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			0.2%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			1.9%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM)			0.5%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM)			0.8%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY)			3.6%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY)			2.6%
08:00	CZK Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
08:00	CZK Producer Price Index (YoY)			0%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.1%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)			0.4%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		1.1%	1.1%
09:00	TRY Budget Balance			-2.8B
09:00	EUR Trade Balance n.s.a.		€14.2B	€26.9B
09:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.		€21.1B	€21.2B
09:00	EUR Labour cost		1.9%	1.5%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.5%	0.3%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		1.1%	1.1%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.9%	1.9%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)		0.3%	0.2%
09:45	EUR ECB Cœuré Speech
10:30	RUB Interest rate decision			7.25%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$412.23B
12:00	PLN Net Inflation			0.6%
12:00	GBP BoE Quarterly Bulletin
12:30	USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index		19.75	20.10
12:30	CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)		0.2%	1.4%
12:30	CAD Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities			$6.15B
12:30	CAD Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities			$-1.9B
13:15	USD Industrial Production (MoM)		0.3%	0.7%
13:15	USD Capacity Utilization		78.1%	78.0%
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		98.8	98.0
15:00	COP Retail Sales (YoY)			5.5%
15:00	COP Industrial ouput (YoY)			-1.4%
16:00	PEN Gross Domestic Product
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			862
19:00	ARS Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			3.9%
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$162.1K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$111.4K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			583.6K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£7.3K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-3.4K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€89.2K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$-20.2K
20:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows			$61.8B
20:00	USD Total Net TIC Flows			$-38.5B
Saturday, Jun 16
24h	IDR Hari Raya Idul Fitri
24h	ZAR Youth Day

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

EUR/USD seems fragile below 1.1700 as Middle East war boosts energy prices

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GBP/USD hovers around 1.3400 with bearish pressure intact

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Gold sticks to gains above $5,350 amid sustained safe-haven demand; firmer USD caps gains

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