Australian Employment Preview: Moderate gain coming in May

Analysts at ANZ and Westpac are expecting a moderation in Australian employment numbers for the month of May, when they will be released on Thursday at 0130 GMT. They are expecting a gain in the range of 17k-18k in employment, while forecasting the unemployment rate to fall to 5.5%.


“With ANZ jobs growth picking up in the latest month, and ongoing strength in business conditions, reported profitability and hiring intentions, we expect another moderate gain in employment in May. We look for a rise of 18k and an unemployment rate of 5.5%. Note that this month's report will also include the under-employment rate for the three months to May.”


“The leading indicators are still pointing to sound monthly employment prints as is estimates of population growth. However, due to base effects our forecast +17k gain in employment has the annual pace dipping to 2.6%yr. The strength in female participation has been driving the overall lift in participation. However, it is the weakness in male employment, given the recent strength male participation that is behind the lift in unemployment. We are forecasting a flat participation rate for May which means that after rounding, the forecast +17k in employment is enough to lower the unemployment rate to 5.5%.”

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