Forex Today: Won sold-off into intervention talks, a light calendar ahead


Forex today witnessed a broad-based US dollar retreat in holiday-thinned Asian trading, as the dollar bulls took a breather heading into the US durable goods data release later today. As a result, most majors attempted a tepid bounce but volatility remained marginal.

Amongst the Asia-pac currencies, the South Korean Won was slammed following the awful South Korean GDP report and fx intervention talks. The USD/KRW pair rallied above the 1,160 for the first time since January 2017. Meanwhile, its Asian peer, the JPY, kept its range trade intact versus the American dollar around the 112 handle. The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) modification to its forward guidance on the interest rates and the forecasts downgrade had little impact on the local currency. Both the Antipodeans traded better bid, but within close proximity to the multi-week troughs amid mixed market sentiment and dovish central banks” policy stance. 

On the commodities front, both crude benchmarks remained on the back foot while gold futures on Comex stalled its bounce and traded weaker near 1275 levels.

Main Topics in Asia

Theresa May: Clwyd South Tory group has no confidence in PM – BBC

May plans withdrawal agreement bill vote next week following leadership reprieve – Sky News

Brent Oil Technical Analysis: Double top with bearish RSI divergence on 4H

Moody’s: Risk-off is impacting weaker Chinese companies

Gold Technical Analysis: Bullish divergence on the momentum indicators

USD/KRW hits fresh 2.5-year tops above 1,160 on awful S. Korean GDP and fx intervention talks

US Official: US sanctions have denied Iran more than $10 billion in oil revenue

BOJ keeps policy unchanged, modifies guidance on interest rates

BOJ to take steps contributing to continuation of powerful easing

PBOC Vice Governor Liu: Central bank has no intent to tighten or relax monetary policy

Key Focus Ahead

Nothing of note to look forward to, in terms of macro data releases, in the European session, except for the UK CBI industrial trends survey – orders that will drop in at 1000 GMT. Therefore, the focus will remain on the BOJ Chief Kuroda’s press conference around 0630 GMT and the Indonesian central bank monetary policy decision due to be announced at 0730 GMT.

In contrast, the NA calendar remains data-heavy, with the weekly jobless claims and durable goods due on the cards from the US docket at 1230 GMT, followed by a few minority reports. The US durable goods data will be closely eyed for fresh hints on the US Q1 prelim GDP report due tomorrow.

EUR/USD: Weakest daily close since June 2017, focus on US durable goods

EUR/USD looks south toward 1.10, having bolstered the already bearish technical setup with a close below 1.176 yesterday. An above-forecast US durable goods data may hasten the drop to 1.10. 

GBP/USD regains 1.2900 handle on Brexit headlines

Even if recent positive news from the UK seems to help the pair, traders are still to confront the US data as no major British statistics are up for release today.

Indonesia: Bank Indonesia likely to hold rates steady - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Bank Indonesia to maintain its 7-day reverse repo rate at 6.00% in its policy meeting today.

US Durable Goods Preview: Where the consumer leads

Durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.8% in March having fallen 1.6% in February. Orders excluding the transportation sector are predicted to gain 0.2% after February’s revised 0.1% decline.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Friday, Apr 19
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
Monday, Apr 22
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
Thursday, Apr 25
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
n/a
 
 
07:30
 
6%
6%
10:00
 
3
1
12:30
 
1.699M
1.653M
12:30
 
200K
192K
12:30
 
0.1%
-0.1%
12:30
 
0.8%
-1.6%
12:30
 
0.1%
-1.9%
12:30
 
0.2%
-0.1% Revised from 0.1%
12:30
 
 
14:30
 
 
92B
15:00
 
 
17
15:30
 
 
2.4%
17:00
 
 
2.281%
22:45
 
$-6.339B
$-6.620B
22:45
 
$5.30B
$4.82B
22:45
 
$5.15B
$4.80B
22:45
 
$131M
$12M
23:30
 
2.4%
2.3%
23:30
 
1.64
1.63
23:50
 
1.1%
1.1%
23:50
 
0.7%
0.7%
23:50
 
0.8%
0.9%
23:50
 
-0.4%
0.7%
23:50
 
-0.6%
-1.1%

 

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