Forex Today: USD bulls rescued by NY Fed while Gold takes a breather

US dollar index offered reprieve by the NY Fed’s clarification on President Willian’s comments.
Gold consolidates the rally to 2019 highs.
All eyes on trade and geopolitical developments.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Here is what you need to know to start your day on Friday, July 19th, European session:

- US dollar bounced vs. main competitors after the NY Fed disavowed President Williams’ preventive rate cut comments, Treasury yields looked to stabilize.

- USD/JPY jumped off 107.21 lows, a dead cat bounce amid aggressive July Fed rate cut calls? Japanese CPIs matched estimates.

- Asian equities cheered risk-on. Aussie’s upside capped near 0.7080 amid trade anxiety. Kiwi bulls faced rejection just below 0.68 handle.

- US-China officials discussed trade; Mnuchin eyes possible in-person talks. Japan urged S. Korea envoy to act amid escalating trade row over wartime forced labor.

- UK: The Cable consolidated the recovery amid upbeat UK retail sales data and mounting Hard Brexit risks.

- Oil prices extended the corrective upside after US Navy ship 'destroyed' Iranian drone in Gulf, ignored IEA 2019 oil demand forecast downgrade. Gold pulled back from 2019 highs of $1452.

- Cryptocurrencies consolidated the latest upmove. Bitcoin capped below 11k.

Key events to watch

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, Jul 18
21:00	CLP BCCH Interest Rate			2.5%
23:30	JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food (YoY)	0.6%	0.6%	0.8%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%
23:30	JPY National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)	0.5%	0.6%	0.5%
23:50	JPY Foreign Bond Investment	¥950.0B		¥297.0B Revised from ¥297.1B
23:50	JPY Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks	¥-93.1B		¥192.2B
Friday, Jul 19
03:00	NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY)	6.6%	5.4%	6.7% Revised from 6.6%
04:30	JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM)	0.3%	-0.2%	0.8% Revised from 0.9%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)	1.2%	1.4%	1.9%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.1%
08:00	PLN Retail Sales (YoY)		4.9%	7.3%
08:00	EUR Current Account s.a			€21B
08:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a			€19.2B
08:30	GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing		£3.200B	£4.463B
08:30	EUR Current Account (YoY)			€-1.4B
08:30	EUR Unemployment Rate		4.9%	4.9%
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth			12%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$429.91B
12:30	CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.4%	0.1%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%	0.1%
13:00	EUR Consumer Confidence Index			-7
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		98.5	98.2
15:00	COP Trade Balance			$-460.1M
15:05	USD Fed's Bullard speech
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			784
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC Net Positions			$17.2K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC Net Positions			$244.8K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC Net Positions			390.1K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC Net Positions			£-73K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC Net Positions			¥-3.7K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions			€-35.9K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC Net Positions			$-54K
20:30	USD Fed's Rosengren speech
Saturday, Jul 20
24h	COP Independence Day
Sunday, Jul 21
24h	EUR National holiday
Monday, Jul 22
04:30	EUR Consumer Spending Volume			1.8%
04:30	EUR Consumer Confidence Adj			0
06:00	DKK Industrial Outlook			-5
06:00	DKK Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.7%
08:30	HKD Consumer Price Index		2.7%	2.8%
09:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
09:00	ISK Consumer Price Index (YoY)			3.3%
10:00	GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)			-15
10:00	ILS Industrial Production (MoM)			2.9%
12:00	PLN M3 Money Supply (YoY)		10.0%	9.9%
12:30	USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index			-0.05
12:30	CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)		0.2%	1.7%
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			2.115%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			2.01%
22:30	AUD RBA's Kent speech
Tuesday, Jul 23
05:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			6.6%
05:00	SGD Consumer Price Index (YoY)			0.9
06:00	DKK Consumer Confidence			5.8
07:00	TRY Consumer Confidence			57.6
08:00	PLN Unemployment (MoM)		5.3%	5.4%
10:00	GBP CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM)			-42%
12:00	BRL Mid-month Inflation		0.06%	0.06%
12:00	HUF MNB Interest Rate Decision		0.9%	0.9%
12:15	GBP BoE's Haldane speech
12:55	USD Redbook Index (YoY)			4.7%
12:55	USD Redbook Index (MoM)			1%
13:00	USD Housing Price Index (MoM)			0.4%
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)		5.35M	5.34M
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)		1.2%	2.5%
14:00	USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index			3
14:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-6.5	-7.2
17:00	USD 2-Year Note Auction			1.695%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-1.401M
22:45	NZD Exports			$5.81B
22:45	NZD Trade Balance (YoY)			$-5.49B
22:45	NZD Imports			$5.54B
22:45	NZD Trade Balance (MoM)			$264M
Wednesday, Jul 24
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI		49.7	49.3
05:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			0.9%
05:00	EUR Export Prices (YoY)			-0.1%
05:00	EUR Import Prices (YoY)			-0.7%
05:00	JPY Leading Economic Index		95.2	95.2
05:00	JPY Coincident Index		103.2	103.2
06:45	EUR Business Climate		104	102
07:15	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		50.7	51.9
07:15	EUR Markit PMI Composite		51.2	52.7
07:15	EUR Markit Services PMI		51.5	52.9
07:30	EUR Markit PMI Composite		52.5	52.6
07:30	EUR Markit Services PMI		55.4	55.8
07:30	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		45.4	45.0
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		4.5%	4.5%
08:00	ZAR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.35%	0.30%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (3m)			4.7%
08:00	EUR M3 Money Supply (YoY)		4.6%	4.8%
08:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		51.8	52.2
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		48.0	47.6
08:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		52.9	53.6
08:30	GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals			42.384K
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-1.1%
13:00	MXN 1st half-month Inflation		0.08%	0.01%
13:00	MXN 1st half-month Core Inflation		0.13%	0.16%
13:00	EUR Leading Indicator			-4.9
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI		50.4	50.6
13:45	USD Markit Services PMI		51.0	51.5
13:45	USD Markit PMI Composite			51.5
14:00	USD New Home Sales Change (MoM)			-7.8%
14:00	USD New Home Sales (MoM)		0.650M	0.626M
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change			-3.116M
17:00	USD 5-Year Note Auction			1.791%
23:00	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY)		2.9%	1.7%
23:00	KRW Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ)		0.4%	-0.4%
23:50	JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY)		0.0%	0.8%
23:50	JPY Foreign Bond Investment			¥950B
23:50	JPY Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks			¥-93.1B
Thursday, Jul 25
03:05	AUD RBA's Governor Lowe speech
06:00	NOK Labour Force Survey			3.2%
07:00	TRY Manufacturing Confidence			102.5
07:00	TRY Capacity Utilization			77.1%
07:00	EUR Unemployment Survey		13.5%	14.7%
07:00	EUR Industrial Production (YoY)			4.5%
07:00	SEK Consumer Confidence (MoM)			93.8
07:30	SEK Unemployment Rate		6.5%	6.8%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (MoM)			0%
07:30	SEK Producer Price Index (YoY)			3.5%
08:00	EUR IFO - Business Climate		96.7	97.4
08:00	EUR IFO - Current Assessment		98.7	100.8
08:00	EUR IFO - Expectations		95.2	94.2
08:00	EUR Trade Balance non-EU			€3.11B
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (YoY)		5.8%	6.4%
09:30	ZAR Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.5%
11:00	TRY CBRT Interest Rate Decision		22%	24%
11:45	EUR ECB Deposit Rate Decision		-0.4%	-0.4%
11:45	EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision		0%	0%
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			216K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.686M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average			218.75K
12:30	USD Wholesale Inventories			0.4%
12:30	USD Goods Trade Balance			$-75.05B Revised from $-74.55B
12:30	USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft		0.1%	0.5% Revised from 0.4%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders		0.5%	-1.3%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders ex Defense			-0.5% Revised from -0.6%
12:30	USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation		0.1%	0.4% Revised from 0.3%
12:30	EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (YoY)		1.4%	1.6%
13:00	MXN Retail Sales (MoM)			0.7%
13:30	BRL Current Account			$0.662B
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change			62B
15:00	USD Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity			-3
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			2.09%
17:00	USD 7-Year Note Auction			1.889%
19:00	ARS Trade Balance (MoM)			$1,373M
20:00	COP Interest rate			4.25%
21:00	KRW Consumer Sentiment Index			97.5
23:50	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.1%	1.1%
23:50	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)		0.9%	0.9%
23:50	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)		0.8%	0.8%
Friday, Jul 26
05:00	SGD Industrial Production (YoY)		-3.7%	-2.4%
05:00	SGD Industrial Production (MoM)		-0.8%	-0.7%

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Week ahead: Central bank and earnings bonanza could roil markets

After joining the rate-hike club in September, the Federal Reserve looks set to stand pat in October, waiting to assess more data before deciding to hike again. Whilst this isn’t an unusual move for a central bank, it somewhat contradicts Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s new mantra of data dependency and zero forward guidance.

CFTC Report: WTI rally runs ahead of positioning

The week in one sentence: WTI prices surged while speculative longs were cut in the week to October 20, creating the clearest price/positioning divergence. Sterling and the Canadian Dollar led the constructive currency shift, while Yen longs also rebuilt. Speculators turned less constructive on the WTI, reducing their net exposure to around 89.3K contracts.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.