|

Forex Today: US Dollar starts new week on the back foot

Here is what you need to know on Monday, January 9:

The US Dollar struggles to find demand at the beginning of the week with the US Dollar Index falling toward multi-month lows near 103.50 after having lost more than 1% on a daily basis on Friday. The market mood remains relatively upbeat after the risk rally witnessed ahead of the weekend and US stock index futures rise between 0.3% and 0.5% in the early European morning. Sentix Investor Confidence and November Unemployment Rate data will be featured in the European economic docket. Later in the session, November Consumer Credit Change from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 223,000 in December. This reading came in much better than the market expectation of 200,000 but failed to provide a boost to the US Dollar. Underlying details of the jobs report revealed showed that the annual wage inflation, as measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 4.6% from 4.8%, compared to analysts' forecast of 5%. Later in the American session, the ISM announced that the Services PMI dropped to 49.6 in December from 56.5 in November. The Employment Index declined to 49.8 in the same period and the Priced Paid Index dropped to 67.6 from 70. 

Following these data releases, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell toward 3.5% and lost more than 4% on Friday. Wall Street's three main indexes rose more than 2% and the US Dollar suffered heavy losses against its rivals. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 75% probability of a 25 basis points Fed rate hike in February, up from 57% early Friday.

EUR/USD gained more than 100 pips on Friday and continued to stretch higher toward 1.0700 early Monday. The data from Germany revealed on Monday that Industrial Production expanded by 0.2% on a monthly basis in November following October's 0.1% contraction.

GBP/USD rose sharply on Friday and ended up closing the week flat near 1.2100. With the US Dollar staying on the back foot in the early European session on Monday, the pair holds in positive territory at around 1.2150.

Gold price capitalized on falling US T-bond yields and registered impressive gains ahead of the weekend. XAU/USD preserves its bullish momentum early Monday and was last seen trading at its highest level sinc eearly May near $1,880.

Despite the selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar, USD/JPY stayed relatively quiet below 132.00 at the beginning of the week as Japanese markets remained closed due to Coming-of-Age Day bank holiday.

Bitcoin managed to push higher over the weekend and rose nearly 3% on a weekly basis. BTC/USD was last seen trading at its highest level since mid-December at around $17,200. Ethereum gained more than 2% on Sunday and preserved its bullish momentum early Monday. At the time of press, ETH/USD was up 1.5% on the day at $1,310.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD struggles for direction amid USD gains

EUR/USD is trimming part of its earlier gains, coming under some mild downside pressure near 1.1730 as the US Dollar edges higher. Markets are still digesting the Fed’s latest rate decision, while also looking ahead to more commentary from Fed officials in the sessions ahead.

GBP/USD drops to daily lows near 1.3360

Disappointing UK data weighed on the Sterling towards the end of the week, triggering a pullback in GBP/USD to fresh daily lows near 1.3360. Looking ahead, the next key event across the Channel is the BoE meeting on December 18.

Gold losses momentum, challenges $4,300

Gold now gives away some gains and disputes the key $4,300 zone per troy ounce following earlier multi-week highs. The move is being driven by expectations that the Fed will deliver further rate cuts next year, with the yellow metal climbing despite a firmer Greenback and rising US Treasury yields across the board.

Litecoin Price Forecast: LTC struggles to extend gains, bullish bets at risk

Litecoin (LTC) price steadies above $80 at press time on Friday, following a reversal from the $87 resistance level on Wednesday. Derivatives data suggests a bullish positional buildup while the LTC futures Open Interest declines, flashing a long squeeze risk.

Big week ends with big doubts

The S&P 500 continued to push higher yesterday as the US 2-year yield wavered around the 3.50% mark following a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut earlier this week that was ultimately perceived as not that hawkish after all. The cut is especially boosting the non-tech pockets of the market.

Aave Price Forecast: AAVE primed for breakout as bullish signals strengthen

Aave (AAVE) price is trading above $204 at the time of writing on Friday and approaching the upper boundary of its descending parallel channel; a breakout from this structure would favor the bulls.