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Forex Today: US dollar sold-off into fresh US tariffs, eyes on UK retail sales, Carney

FXStreet Team FXStreet

Risk-aversion remained the main underlying theme in Asia this Thursday after Trump brought in fresh tariffs on auto imports while North Korea threatened to call-off the June Summit. The US dollar extended post-FOMC minutes weakness across its main competitors, offering some respite to the Antipodeans. However, the recovery gains remained capped amid negative Asian equities and weaker oil prices.

The Yen, on the other hand, continued to outperform and reached fresh weekly lows near 109.40 against its American peer. Another safe-haven, gold, also extended its corrective rally and looked set to test the $ 1300 mark amid the resurgence of global trade tensions.

Main topics in Asia

Trump's new US auto tariff proposal to weigh on risk

The WSJ has run an article in recent trade which could be a weight on market sentiment as trade war risk comes back to the fore.

USD/TRY retreats on much-needed intervention after Lira plummets past 4.925

The Lira tumbled 5.7% on Wednesday in the lead-up to intervention by the Turkish central bank, and the USD/TRY pair peaked at an all-time high of 4.9262 before the central bank …

Australia's RBA head warns about Chinese debt - Australian Financial Review

Australia's Reserve Bank of Australia head, Philip Lowe, spoke on Wednesday about the hazards posed to Australia from China due to the interconnected nature of their economies, as noted by the Australian Financial Review.

North Korea threatens to call off Summit, calls pence a ‘political dummy’ - WSJ

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports comments from Choe Son Hui, North Korea’s Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, with further insights on the earlier headlines that cited ‘North Korean official to suggest reconsidering US summit meeting - Korea press’.

BOJ's Sakurai: Yield curve control will boost inflation expectations

Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Sakurai said on Thursday expressed confidence the stimulative effect of yield curve control policy will boost inflation expectations and stressed the BOJ needs to hit the price goal at the earliest date possible.

China Commerce Ministry: China does not pledge a number to US trade surplus cut

Following comments are reported by Reuters from China’s Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM), as China reacts to the latest US tariffs on autos.

Key Focus ahead

After a data-light Asian session, markets look forward to the European calendar, with plenty of event risks in stores for today. The German final GDP and GfK Consumer Climate will be reported in early Europe while the UK retail sales report is the only economic data due on the cards in the European session. However, a slew of speeches from the global central bankers will keep the traders busy.

0700 GMT - FOMC Dudley’s speech

0800 GMT – BOE Carney’s speech

0815 GMT – FOMC Williams’ speech

0830 GMT – ECB Praet’s speech

1030 GMT – ECB Praet’s speech (round 2)

Also, in focus remains the ECB May monetary policy meeting minutes that will be published at 1130 GMT. In the NA session, the US docket will see the usual weekly jobless claims release, followed by existing home sales data. Meanwhile, FOMC member Bostic, Harker will be seen speaking in the mid-American session. BOE Governor Carney will be seen back on the wires at 1700 GMT, speaking at the Society of Professional Economists' annual dinner, in London.

EUR/USD gasps for breath at 1.17 as the decline continues ahead of German GDP

The EUR/USD is trading around the 1.1700 level ahead of Thursday's European market session, and the pair is struggling to develop a bounce from Wednesday drop.

GBP/USD: Fed-BOE divergence hurts, eyes UK retail sales

The GBP/USD has been oversold for three weeks now, according to the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), still, the corrective rally remains elusive. The monetary policy divergence will likely widen further in a GBP-negative manner if the UK retail sales miss estimates.

UK retail sales to rebound in April - Barclays

The Barclays Research Team offers a sneak peek at what to expect from today’s UK retail sales slated for release at 0830 GMT.

Trump to appear in a Fox TV interview at 1000 GMT - Twitter

The US President Trump, in his latest tweet, announced his interview on Fox TV at 0600 AM NY Time (1000 GMT) later on Thursday.

GMT	Event	Consensus	Previous
Monday, May 21
24h	EUR Whit Monday
24h	CHF Whit Monday
24h	CAD Victoria Day
Thursday, May 24
24h	EUR Eurogroup meeting
06:00	EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey	10.8	10.8
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)	2.3%	2.3%
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	0.3%	0.3%
06:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	1.6%	1.6%
07:00	USD Fed's William Dudley speech
08:00	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
08:00	EUR EU Financial Stability Review
08:15	USD Fed's William Dudley speech
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)	0.1%	1.1%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)	0.4%	-0.5%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)	0.1%	1.1%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)	0.7%	-1.2%
08:30	EUR ECB's Praet Speech
10:30	EUR ECB's Praet Speech
11:30	EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims	1.754M	1.707M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims	220K	222K
13:00	USD Housing Price Index (MoM)	0.5%	0.6%
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)	5.57M	5.60M
14:00	USD Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)	-0.2%	1.1%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change	92B	106B
14:35	USD FOMC Member Bostic speech
15:00	USD Kansas Fed manufacturing activity		33
17:00	USD 7-Year Note Auction		2.952%
17:00	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech

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FXStreet Team

FXStreet

Composed of a group of economic journalists and FX experts, the FXStreet content team produces and oversees all content published on FXStreet. It provides a purely journalistic approach to the Forex market.

Japanese Yen gains ground as traders await Fed rate decision

The USD/JPY pair loses ground to near 160.25 during the early European trading hours. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh later on Wednesday.

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7050; looks to Fed for fresh impetus

AUD/USD is consolidating above mid-0.7000s in the Asian session on Wednesday as traders await the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting due later in the day. In the meantime, the optimism over an interim peace deal between the US and Iran keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive. This, along with the RBA's hawkish pause on Tuesday, acts as a tailwind for the pair.

Gold consolidates above $4,300 as traders look to Fed rate decision for fresh impetus

Gold struggles to capitalize on its weekly gains, though it holds above the $4,300 mark through the Asian session. The latest optimism over an interim US-Iran peace deal keeps the US Dollar on the defensive, which is seen supporting the bullion. The commodity remains below the weekly swing high set on Monday and a technically significant 200-day SMA level.

Bitcoin holds $65,000 as Uniswap and Worldcoin extend rally

Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing headwinds above $65,000 following the Bank of Japan’s rate hike to 1% on Tuesday. Still, Uniswap (UNI) and Worldcoin (WLD) continue to rally amid rising retail interest, while Bitcoin’s recovery grows heavy. Bitcoin edges higher at press time on Wednesday, inching closer to $66,000 as it maintains a mixed near-term tone following the recent rebound from $60,000.

The most important event will be the Fed meeting with Mr. Warsh now in charge

The most important event will be the Fed meeting on Wednesday, with Mr. Warsh now in charge. As more than one analyst points out, the case for holding rates the same is strengthened by the Iran deal and the prospect of the Strait re-opening, although nobody thinks Warsh can marshal enough doves to do a cut this time.

Why a hawkish RBA is no longer enough to lift the Australian Dollar

The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered more than what markets expected: a hawkish hold that should have supported the Aussie. But markets widely ignored it, focusing instead on slowing economic growth and proving that central bank messaging alone isn’t always enough to drive currencies.